Why when I do state to state polls the numbers are more pro republican than the "national polls"?

Answer 1

Polls should not be trusted. The data is too easy to manipulate based on several factors, not the least of which is how you ask the question. I do know what you mean though. I was watching NBC News the other night and they were reporting overwhelming numbers for Democrats in all races, but numerous other polls that are out show many of these races as being too close to call.
The honest fact is that polls are not representative because the cross sections of sample people are to small and many people refuse to respond to polls, but do vote in the elections. In the end polls just cannot predict the real outcomes of elections.

Answer 2

Just So You Know... Just one national poll.....

On Thursday the New York Times released their most recent poll showing (again) that the Dems can’t lose come next Tuesday. And, again, the problem is that the poll seems to bear no resemblance to those people who are actually going to, you know, SHOW UP to vote.

The headline read... “Analysis” - “With Elections Approaching VOTERS Want A New Approach”.

.
In the NYT poll, 23% of respondents aren’t even eligible to vote.

And of those 77% that are registered, a full 37% didn’t vote in the last mid-term election, and an additional 13% don’t remember if they voted then. Folks, that means that OVER HALF OF THE TOTAL RESPONDENTS DIDN’T VOTE/CAN’T REMEMBER VOTING IN 2002.

Plus, some 26% didn’t even bother to vote in the friggin 2004 Presidential election.

How in God’s name can the NYT seriously believe this poll to be reflective of anything?

Now let’s look at some of the specific demographic information that should give you pause to think.


1. Party ID of Respondents - The poll is made up of 39% Democrats and only 28% Republicans.

2. Party Preference In Voting-The poll asked for what party the respondents generally voted. 28% of respondents “Always” or “Usually” vote for Republicans (7% “Always’). However, a whopping 39% “Always” or “Usually” vote for Democrats. (14% “Always” and 25% “Usually”). Um, hasn’t the GOP been the majority party for the last 12 years?

The poll respondents want a new approach. But the problem is that the poll respondents aren’t necessarily “voters”.

Answer 3

Because polls are tempermental. Most of this country leans Republican, just look at the county-by-county map of the 2004 Elections. However, most large, urban areas are Democratic. Statistically, as much as National polls try to get a good cross-sample, they are going to pull more urban voters than suburban and rural, therefore skewing the results. However, the full population size for a state is smaller and although they have the same cross-sampling problems, they are able to poll more accurately.
An interesting poll that was done, I believe by Foxmedia asked two questions to voters. The first was "Are you satisfied with the job Congress is doing?" and nearly 70% said no. The second was "Are you satisfied with the job your specific Representative/Senator is doing" and about 63% said yes.

Answer 4

Most polls are conducted in large urban settings. N.Y. City, L.A., Chicago etc..etc.. That's where they can reach the most people quickly, but that is also predominately Democratic territory. What they don't realize or care about is that the rural areas of the country are the areas that predominately vote Republican. That's why their polls always have Democrat winning easily, then later in the evening they are "surprised" to find the Republicans winning the real vote. See both the last Presidential elections

Answer 5

Where are you getting the state by state polls? I feel you are totaly correct and all of these races are far tighter then the media leads on but I would like to see the facts.

Answer 6

there are alot of slanted polls but for the most part it will be close and we wont know until wendsday and after the 500 law suites that will be brought by a certain party!

Answer 7

because the national polls are affected by the intense liberal media bias....its really that bad. thats what garners the attention so the results are usually manipulated or filtered.

Answer 8

polls are accurate

Answer 9

Really? Which ones. Post the links so we can compare them please.