Do you really understand statistics as it relates to elections?

Question

Let us say you have Rick Republican vs Danny Democrat and the polls say D leads by 3 points, but the margin of error is 3.5%. Exactly what does this mean?

Then lets say that the polls state that D leads 46-43%.

1. Who leads?
2. By how much?
3. Who is the likely winner?

First one that gets all 3 right wins 10 points.

Also, I need an explanation of your answer.

Answer 1

Statistics - reminds me of the old saying, "Figures lie and liars figure."

1: Pretty much a dead heat
2: N/A
3: The candidate that can get the undecided
votes will win if the polls hold true.

Answer 2

It doesn't really matter - the statistics are provided by the media which means they are probably false or biased anyway.