what happened to all those hurricanes the weather people said we'd be getting this year.. could it be that..

Question

meteorologists can't predict the weather from one year to the next, so why would they be able to predict the weather a hundred years from now?

im not talking about just the fact that no hurricanes hit america, i'm talking about the fact that there were many less that even developed.

Answer 1

There are a lot of variables that go into weather prediction.... not to mention hurricane prediction. Some we know and others were are just discovering. Not only that meteorology is a "new" science and a difficult one at that. Today's models are only effcient at predicting a time period of 2-5 days out. And even after one day the amount of error is noticable... and anywhere after that the error increases exponentially. So when scientist try to predict what is going to happen 1-6 or 12 months out one can imagine the amount of error that will be in that forecast. Until we understand and know of all the variable that effect weather we will never be able predict it but we are striving to get there one day.

Answer 2

You are getting your scientists mixed up. Meteorologists predict day to day weather (such as the temperature for the next week, if it will rain, etc.) Climatologists study how temperature changes over hundreds of years, weather phenomena on the grand scale.

These sciences are separate because they look at very different things. Meteorology is going to take measurements for pressure, temperature, windspeed, twice a day to keep up with the changes in the atmosphere. Weather prediction models usually run out to 7 days at most.

Climatology on the other hand looks at BIG things. The small variations in the orbit of the Earth, the changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere, how volcanic eruptions and meteor impacts alter global average temperature.

The exact reason why there weren't many hurricanes this year? Wind shear over the Atlantic. (Which basically means winds at one height were blowing in a different direction than winds at another height.) This is very disruptive to the formation of hurricanes. If you bothered to look at satellite data over the summer, you would have noticed a large number of tropical systems that had potential, but did not form hurricanes because of wind shear.

Wind shear is, in general, not predictable more than 7 days in advance. Trends in the chemical composition of the atmosphere, and the effect that will have on temperature is very predictable.

Answer 3

The Weather Pattern Changed. When a Hurricane did form we always had a high pressure system or Frontal Boundary on us. That kept it in the ocean. Predicting is just what it is. There is a 50/50 chance of it occurring. Somtimes thier right sometimes thier not.

Now in a hundred years I'm sure they will have better weather instruments, and maybe be 100% Accordant.

Answer 4

Clio Area and wdmc ignore the fact that it was a more active than normal hurricane season in the eastern Pacific this year, with storms hitting the west coast of Mexico. This, and a lighter season than normal for the Atlantic, is typical of El Nino episodes, which summer 2006 (unexpectedly) turned out to have.

Answer 5

My personal belief is (and this applies to all weather forcast) due to climate shifts(drastic) all weather computer models are off. We have always poked fun at the weather forcaster....but now they are REALLY off. They truly do not know what's next because all of the constants have changed due to either natural climate shifts or global warming, or whatever....All I know for sure is the weather where have lived for decades, has now changed dramatically in the last few years...I can no longer predict my own weather... good luck