With today's technology, is it possible for humanity to defend itself from an asteroid style extinction event?

Question

Specifically, I am asking this with consideration to the current status of global affairs, and the current ability of world powers to efficiently cooperate. The extinction-causing extra-terrestial object could be a large meteor, comet or stray asteroid.

Answer 1

There's nothing like a common enemy to get people to cooperate. I think that if we could convince the major nations that the chance of collision was high, they would all cooperate. There would be squabbling, but they would cooperate. And, one or two might want to maintain their own programs. This would be a very good thing in order to avoid putting all our eggs in one basket.

I think the biggest chance of success is to construct several Nuclear Electric Propulsion modules and then send them into orbit one at time. Then we'd take them to the asteroid, attach them, and start pushing. We don't need to destroy it; we just need to change its course.

Answer 2

It's all a matter of how much time we have. Given a hundred years the answer is probably yes regardless of size. The reason is that a tiny nudge now equates to a significant change in the future. For example, and this is real, given a hundred years we could put a satellite in orbit around the asteriod. The gravitational interation between the asteriod and the simple little 500-lb satelite is enough to nudge the asteriod off a killer course.

Given a little time, 20 years or less, there's virtually nothing we can do regardless of size. Some asteriods are almost solid metal - maybe we could explode a series of high-yield (megaton) hydrogen bombs to move it off course, but that would be a slim chance at best. But if the asteriod is rock, or a comet made of ice and rock, then we're screwed. One blast and we turn the asteriod from a shell to a cluster bomb. Bad.

The good news is that we've not had a truly devestating extinction event in 65 million years. That bad news is that it will happen again, someday.

Answer 3

I agree with Nick S. Currently we lack the technology to defeat a "planet killer" astreoid or comet. Nuclear bombs are the most powerful weapon mankind has and it would be like shooting a boulder with bb gun (assuming a body as large as Everest which is the estimated size of the one that wiped out the dinosaurs). The truth is there may never be technology that could prevent such an event from happening not to mention it may not even be desirable. Think of space like a 3 dimensional pool table, if we were to knock a comet or asteroid off course to avoid the Earth we could in the process cause a chain reaction that could destroy the entire galaxy (ok it is highly improbable but you have to be careful about such things). Ultimately, you (personally) have a better chance of being hit by satalitte falling from orbit then of an asteroid the size of a mountain hitting the Earth any time soon. I would be more worried about that if I were you.

Answer 4

Current technology needs 10 years advance notice, contrary to some of the answerers above. Some of the interdiction plans call for gently nudging by solar powered rockets, getting a rocket close enough to create a small gravitational field...thus changing its path. One idea that was ruled out was the use of powerful nuclear weapons, as that would create many pieces of planetoid that would bombard the earth.

The scary ones, are the asteroids or comets coming from behind the Sun where we'll only have 2 years advance warning, little time to achieve an interdiction plan.

Answer 5

Our best bet of defending ourselves against a large meteor or asteroid that may hit the earth, will most certainly be against an asteroid that we already know about & orbits near the plane of the planets about the sun. That is why NASA is trying to find as many near earth orbiting meteors & asteroids as they presently can. Another plus will be if the calculated collision is scores or hundreds of years in the future(if we can accurately calculate hundreds of years in the future) . The leadtime to collision will be needed to mount a feasible project to destroy or counter the direction of the earth encountering body. Alas, discovering a celestial body that will collide with us within days, months or even 1 or 2 years will be an impossible or dastardly hard body to fend against. Finally, an incoming celestial body on a collision course with the earth that is in a high polar orbit or hyperbolic arc will be a nigh onto impossible body to fend against, even with decades of time to prepare. The time & energy needed to mount a strategy & loft a consistent & powerful counter-offensive weapon into a polar orbit, even with years of lead time, might be an impossibility. Fortunately percentage-wise, incoming celestial bodies seem to have greater numbers in planet plane orbits rather than wild polar orbits...but......

Answer 6

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Answer 7

Just to add to Litesong's good answer, I think we could defend against a small to medium asteroid, one that could do regional damage. But at present there is nothing we could do against the likes of the 6 mile wide one that contributed to the KT extinctions when the dinosaurs were done.

smaller ones we could nudge onto a different orbit, but not one the size of Everest.

Answer 8

I remember watching a show that discussed this scenario and they mentioned the "Armageddon" movie approach to stop a large asteroid. They made it clear that it definitely WAS NOT a good idea to blow it up. The reason being that instead of one gigantic asteroid destroying Earth, it would create many large asteroids that would still destroy the Earth.
I think the solution was to attach many large rocket boosters to the asteroid to steer it off course to avoid hitting Earth. Of course we would need many years notice.

Answer 9

superman would save us!! but in case he isn't real (like santa and the easter bunny ive been told)

we do have sufficient technology to eliminate the smaller asteroids etc but the planet killers would prove a problem - achievable but difficult, we need to colonise other worlds to stop an extinction event happening.

is it just greed that is stopping a world space agency from being formed? it would be great because it could also then develop 'tug' spaceships with massive engines to divert the bigger threats.

Answer 10

Only nukes can do the job but they wouldnt destroy the astroid. They can only nudge and not by a lot. that is why you need years in advance.

A small nudge with over millions of miles more to travel will make all the difference. BTW the nukes need to be 50,000 times more powerful than the current ones.