What are the chances of a Conservative victory at the next election?

Question

Have the Tories managed to recover? Are they managing to revive their local party memberships? How are they regarded by the press?

In Britain, no the USA.

Answer 1

none!!!

Answer 2

I’m thinking we’ll have a Hung parliament, followed by a Tory, Libdem coalition.

I think the Tory vote is temporally inflated due to the disgrace of the Labour cabinet of late. But I think most people would still rather a corrupt labour government over the clueless Tories in reality, it just won’t show in the polls yet.

Remember the 1992 election. Everyone said they’d had enough of the Tories and Labour were ahead in the polls. But in reality, this was just the fashionable thing to say, and deep down people still didn’t have enough faith in labour and the election went the other way.

So…I think the Tories will win a few more key marginals but never strike deep enough to gain a majority. The Lib Dems will only need to steal a few more seats (not nearly as many as the should have by now considering the state of the other two parties) and no one will claim victory out right.

The question is, which way will Menzies swing? He’s already abolished the 50 pence tax policy and is a known conservative (small C), and Cameron is seemingly willing to join the centre ground on tax and public services as well. Plus, Cameron has all the smarm and no policy, and Campbell has all the ideas but no charisma. A perfect match!

Answer 3

The chances of a Conservative government are looking a lot better these days - it is getting more and more likely as Labour in power are seen for what they are.

There is one answer I'd like to take issue with - No Scot will vote Tory ? Well you are wrong there because I know for a fact that I will be !

I don't deny that the Conservatives have a lot of work to do here in Scotland but I am sure the party offers an alternative to the inept and downright bigoted Scottish Labour party. Also I'm not so sure that people here want to separate our country from our sibling nations when it comes down to it if we look at other alternatives.

Answer 4

It would appear so far that the consensus is that the Tories have no chance, however I"m not so sure. The labour Government has introduced or increased some 30 different taxes. The Council Tax, in my area has increased 300%. They have spent £billions on the NHS which is now in a "funding crisis" The Child Support Agency which is supposed to collect money from absent Fathers, is in crisis, costs £millions to fund and does not work. The Tax Credit system has failed resulting in hundreds of Families being told they have to pay back thousands of pounds. Law and Order is out of control. An extremely high rate of "re-offending" shows what a deterrent prisons are. Illegal Immigrants who have been convicted of a crime, being released into society instead of being deported. The Home Office is in crisis!!. The size of Government has increased tremendously under labour. Absolutely no control on immigration. Defying the UN and following Bush into war in Iraq, and following him again into Afghanistan The list goes on and on, I think the Tories stand a good chance of being elected. By the way I"m not a Tory.

Answer 5

According to a report in today's Guardian Cameron's approval rating has gone down from 14 into minus figures. He particularly seems to have lost favour with women voters. While many people in the UK are disillusioned with New Labour they do seem to be creeping (creeping being the operative word) back up in the polls. The chances of a Conservative victory at the next election will probably depend on those who decide not to vote. As for their reviving local party memberships - I don't think so. Mainstream political party activism does not seem to be a favoured activity these days among any section of the UK population. As for their standing with the media - who knows who the media moguls like Murdoch will back in the run up to the election.

Answer 6

Not high but unfortunately no longer completely out of the question.

Cameron is trying to come across as caring and socially aware, but the recent tax options paper the Tories issued stating they could aim for £21bn in tax cuts seems to be them flying a kite to see if the electorate is ready to accept cuts in taxation funded by social service cutbacks. On the bright side, they still have about 3 years to show their true colours as unreconstructed Thatcherites and alienate enough of the electorate to lose next time round.

Answer 7

I would never vote tory. I was born in Thatchors reign and seen to much of her handy work around me. Also, as a Scot, it goes against everything I stand for. Mud sticks and the last tory goverment well and truly shafted the Scots - there is a reason they have no seats up here!

I also won't be voting labour, my vote will be going to the SNP, the only party I can relate to.

To answer your question, no Scot will vote Tory and although this isn't enough to stop them getting into power it will be a good help!

Answer 8

Do you mean in the United States, or in Britain? Cause the whole Tory thing threw me off.

Answer 9

Minimal. It will be a while before the B.E. (Brown Envelope) Party get back into power again. In the meantime David Cameron is the perfect leader, an upper crust spiv.

Answer 10

It will happen. Mark my words. The UK public are that fed up with Labour...take a look at the trend in electing tories in the past. It speaks for itself.

Answer 11

Mark my words! All the polls will say the democrates lead by x amount, then on election day, because of paperless e-voting republicunts will sweep everything, and little w. will be president once again.