Gas prices and nearby elections - correlation, yes or no?

Question

The price of crude oil, unleaded gas, and other energies has spiked sharply lower recently (as you all know). Of course, this coincides with the upcoming congressionals.

I thought that it was pretty obvious that there was a correlation here. However, I was informed that not everybody agrees with this. I'm trying to hear from both sides on this one.

Also, whether someone is a democrat or republican shouldn't be brought into issue in this question, thank you.

Answer 1

absolutely. You can always get a good price on commodities just before a big election is about to occur.

They want to suck us in again and when we vote for someone else, they get sucked back out! LOL

Answer 2

When it comes to oil and gas prices, internal American politics have little effect. (international is another story). Firstly if look back at the oil prices over the years, you will find that the price of oil falls most autumns. This is mostly due to the fall of demand after the summer is over. The autumn also coincides with elections. The question here is, “do oil prices drop in the fall due to elections or due to decrease in demand for oil that happens each fall?”

Another point is that the United States is not the only country in the world. While the rapid increase in the oil has to due with American actions in the Middle East over the past few years, another strong force is at play: India and China. The Indian and Chinese economies have been growing at astronomical rates over the past 20 years. The growth rate of the economies these two countries that hold over 2 billion people, have a huge impact on the price of oil. Much more than any one oil company does.

While politics plays a role in price of oil, I find it hard to believe that companies truly care who is in power. The companies will sell the same amount of oil in US domestic markets regardless of who is in power.

At times it can be very difficult to figure out what exactly what is causing a change in the oil price, these are a few questions that might lead to reasonable understanding of what is happening.

Who are the Major oil producers? You might be surprised to see Norway and Canada on this list.

What is happening the domestic market of these economies? Are they attempting to socialize the oil resources, is there a war, natural disaster ect?

What is happening in the domestic markets of India, and China?

How many oil refineries are there? A possible explanation for the drop in oil prices is that the Gulf of Mexico and New Orleans is recovering form the Hurricane?

Then after all this you might want to look into the behavoiur of the American consumer? Are they driving less, buying more fuel efficient cars? (I think this is unlikely)

Then maybe at the bottom of the list you can look at election in the US.

Answer 3

Bush ought to be given some credit. He lowered restrictions on reformulated blends, which eased some logistical bottlenecks that were putting a crimp on gas production. And for that he should be thanked. It was far from a conspiracy.

Other reasons for the drop in gas prices:
-As others have mentioned, the end of the busy travel season.
-A major terrorist threat in London that put a crimp in some travel plans, thereby lowering demand.
-Gulf facilities damaged in Katrina are coming back online.
-People actually making economic decisions that have helped lower demand pressure - like driving smaller cars, riding the bus or bike, combining trips, etc.
-Availability of higher cost oil (like Chavez's oil) that is cost effective with the higher price of oil.

Answer 4

Oh for crying out loud, people complain when the prices are high and now they are complaining that they are low.

And to suggest bi-partisan answers are possible here is fanciful at best. Every party has their line...

For me, I am sick and tired of the whole "Repubs will bring down the government if they get in" and "Dems will bring down the government if they get in".

Shouldn't we be voting for who can get the job done? As I heard one media pundit put it recently, "We don't need more laws, or less laws?" "What we need is to enforce the laws we have?"
That includes enforcing the laws surrounding price regulations

And the attorney general's office for each state are the ones who address the issue of fuel prices and gouging, etc. So to suggest that Congress who can't even get out of it's own way is somehow fixing the price of light sweet crude to win/lose an election is laughable at best.

Granted the price per barrel of oil does fluctuate due to world events but that is more likely to be issues that disrupt supply such as weather, coups, elections in the country of origin and the factors of violence and upheaval in those countries.

Sorry to disappont, but politics (at least in the US) have nothing to do with this. Do yourself a favor, on Nov 5th, vote your conscience and for who can do the best job, not for who can increase/lower the price of gasoline!!!

Answer 5

33 years old. - M.B.A.
Registerd Democrat form age 18-27
Registered Republican from age 28-now

NO. Gas prices always fall after the summer driving season is over (demand decreases). They always rise for the winter (oil supplies are use to produce heating oil as opposed to gas).
The large decrease this year was caused by two things.

FIRST:
Last summer two hurricanes (Rita & Katrina) swept through the Gulf of Mexico. A large amount of supplies were knocked offline due to all the damage of offshore drilling rigs. Oil infrastructure was also damaged on land in the South Louisiana.
>>This led to immediate price increases.

Due to the damage done supplies were being built up since the hurricanes of 2005. Everyone (environmentalist, National Hurricane Center) predicted another year of increased hurricane activity with major storms. This caused 2 things:
>Increased supply build-up for expected sahortages
>Spectualtors increasing the price of futures in anticipation of shortages

What happened?
>Not one major hurricane in the Gulf and zero damage to oil infrastructure.

The rusult?
>A ton of supplies had been built up that hit the market and lowered priced.
>Speculators stopped bidding up the price of oil because it was likely hurricanes would not cause the damage of last year.

SECOND:
BP announced (beginning of August) that they found damge to pipelines and that Prudhoe Bay production would have to be temporarily shut down (decrease in supple causes increase in price)
Dire consequences were predicted. (not by BP, but by economic forecasters and media) This caused speculators to bid up oil futures.

What happened?
>Some of the oil was rerouted and only half of production was stopped.
>Repairs have not taken as long as anticipated and enough oil was rerouted so that full production has almost been completely restored

The Result?
>Speculators had no reason to speculate and oil futures dropped.
>Supplies disruptions were minimal.
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I also live in South Louisiana. Never worked for are received compensation from the oil industry, but know all about it.

Don't give government so much credit for being competent enough to manipulate gas prices at their whim.

.

Answer 6

I agree. But I feel like my vote doesnt matter anyway. Look at what happened with Bush vs. Kerry. Who voted for Bush? They even had a hip-hop movement against Bush, Vote or Die, sublimanly saying vote for Bush, you will die in a war.

Answer 7

ABSOLUTELY ITS CONNECTED - THE GAS COMPANIES HAVE TO OBLIGE THE PRESIDENT ONCE IN A WHILE ESPECIALLY AT ELECTION TIME - HE SIGNS THEIR PAYCHEQUE AND ITS IN THIER INTEREST TO DROP THIER PRICES - THEY KNOW THAT A DEMOCRAT WILL WITHDRAW US FORCES FROM IRAQ AND THEN ALL THOSE EXTRA PROFITS THAT HAVE COME SINCE THE INVASION THREE YEARS AGO WILL BE GONE

Answer 8

Yes they are connected.

Answer 9

yes
we are being played