A person gives you 3 boxes. 2 contain nothing whilst one contains 1 milion pounds. You choose box A.
The person then reveals to you that there is nothing in box B and allows you the option of switching box A ( the one you currently hold ) with box C
What rationale is there for keeping or swapping the the boxes?
2006-10-20 04:16:31 · 2 answers · asked by Anonymous in Education & Reference ➔ Trivia
Even though it would seem that you have an even chance of having chosen correctly with the first choice, you should always change boxes and switch to Box C. The explanation comes from the fact that your initial guess was based upon 1:2 odds. As soon as the contents of Box B was known, then the odds changed to 50% with your second choice. I know it may seem silly, but statistically you should always swap because otherwise you are still going with your original 1:2 choice instead of 1:1.
2006-10-20 04:36:17 · answer #1 · answered by Anonymous · 1⤊ 0⤋
This is the classic probability problem, called the Monty Hall Three-Door Problem. You'll get lots of good stuff doing a Google search on monty hall probability. Bottom line is that (while counterintuitive) you always want to switch your choice to maximize your chances of winning. If you always switch, you will win 2/3 of the time. Start with Wikipedia for a good rundown on this problem, link below.
2006-10-20 04:25:00 · answer #2 · answered by networkmaster 5 · 0⤊ 0⤋