What is the probability of a Tsunami ORIGINATING in Hawaii due to an earthquake?

Question

My mom is a resident of Hawaii, and was trapped on a low elevation island when the earthquake occured last sunday.

Considering Hawaii is not on a fault line, but rather the center of a moving teutonic plate and it is known that continental lift usually occurs at a fault line and a tsunami is the result of this dramatic upshift when it occurs underwater. Of course, any earthquake can cause massive landslides which can trigger large waves.

My assumption is that there is a much higer risk of a tsunami traveling to Hawaii.

Answer 1

By the way, Sunday's quake did create a tsunami. It was 3" high. Just because it's very small doesn't mean it isn't a tsunami!

If you wanted a mathematical probability, you would want to define your time horizon. Chances are very good that a massive tsunami will eventually orginate in Hawaii and wreak havoc in large parts of the globe. Chances are are also excellent that a tsunami originating in the Ring of Fire (the subduction zones that make up the Pacific Rim) will wreak havoc in Hawaii.

It's a question of when and how much. Both of these are almost certain to happen eventually. We know this from history, but lets look at the difference between historical time, and geologic time.

Several tsunamis originating in earthquakes near Alaska, Chile, and what became Washington State have been known to hit Hawaii within the last few centuries--a couple within the last hundred years. We know this because there's a historical record. People wrote about it. We know the names of the people who died in 1946 and 1960 in Hilo, for instance. There's a valley on the island where I live that has been virtually abandoned since the tsunami of 1946, but there are still people around who grew up there and remember it.

But not all history is written by human beings. Some of it is written on the landscape, and in the rocks. The geology of Hawaii tells us that there have been several huge landslides that have created devastating tsunamis in the short history of the islands (compared to, say, Scotland, where some of the rocks are 3 billion years old).

I live on half a volcano. The other half fell into the ocean 1.5 million years ago. We know it was a big splash because of how far the fragments traveled underwater. The geological record in Australia indicates tsunamis more than 130 feet high scoured the coast there 100,000 years ago and originated in Hawaii.

We also have a good idea where the next massive Hawaiian slide is likely to occur, and it's on the same island where our recent 6.7 quake happened. It's called the Hilina Slump, and it can be found in the neighborhood of the Kilauea volcano, which has been erupting continuously, changing the landscape and tectonic stresses dramatically, since 1983.

Looking at both kinds of historical records, we can reasonably predict that several traumatic tsunamis will hit Hawaii from earthquakes around the Pacific before a traumatic tsunami radiates out from Hawaii. But the one that comes from Hawaii may be much, much worse.

Answer 2

Hawaii along with Japan are problay what you would call the "King and Queen" of Tsunami (how many tsunamis have hit there) . Hawaii, earthquake was caused bty volcanic stress. You must understand the earthquake was not that large at a 6.6, it can be felt throw things off shelves, move houses a bit sometimes even collapsing. But it is only in the strong section the bigger earthquakes are rather in Major to very great. And there is no possible way that Hawaii can have above an 8.0 .The fact that big island volcanic could partly collaspe and find it's way into the sea, it would cause a giant tsunami. The earthquake would have to cause a landslide or the earthquake could cause a
ocean wide tsunami hitting all the areas of the Pacific. The fault which would almost have to be in the water, should move atleast about 8 ft and above to cause a more severe tsunami. Hawaii reallt can not produce earthquakes big enough, if there was a tsunami it would probaly becaued by underwater landslide.

Answer 3

There is actually a pretty good risk of a tsunami originating from Hawaii. Tsunamis aren't just cause by earthquakes, in fact, those are the weakest forms of Tsunami's. They can also be cause by a landslide, usually a very large one that was cause by a volcanic eruption. These are much more powerful, and they can travel at much higher speeds. Plus, unlike an earthquake, where the energy is spread into all directions, a landslide-Tsunami is focused in one direction, making it all the more powerful. In fact, there are reported events of such Tsunami's that have originated from the Ring of Fire, and as some of you might know, Hawaii is in the Ring of Fire. I hope this answers your question.

Answer 4

There is very little risk of a tsunami originating from Hawaii. The only way it could happen that I know of would be for a massive landslide to occur, which would be the same as fault movement. The chances of a mass wasting event being large enough to generate a tsunami wave are slim.

I agree with you that it is more likely that Hawaii will be hit with a wave than generate one.

Answer 5

Tsunamis occur most frequently in the Pacific Ocean, but are a global phenomenon; they are possible wherever large bodies of water are found, including inland lakes, where they can be caused by landslides. Very small tsunamis, non-destructive and undetectable without specialized equipment, occur frequently as a result of minor earthquakes and other events.

Probability is good; in fact it has previously happend.

1946 - Pacific tsunami
The Aleutian Island earthquake tsunami that killed 165 people on Hawaii and Alaska resulted in the creation of a tsunami warning system, established in 1949 for Pacific Ocean area countries. The tsunami is locally known in Hawaii as the April Fools Day Tsunami in Hawaii due to people thinking the warnings were an April Fools prank.

Causes
Schema of a tsunami
A tsunami can be generated by any disturbance that rapidly displaces a large mass of water, such as an earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide or meteorite impact. However, the most common cause is an undersea earthquake. An earthquake which is too small to create a tsunami by itself may trigger an undersea landslide quite capable of generating a tsunami.

Tsunamis can be generated when the sea floor abruptly deforms and vertically displaces the overlying water. Such large vertical movements of the earth's crust can occur at plate boundaries. Subduction earthquakes are particularly effective in generating tsunamis, and occur where denser oceanic plates slip under continental plates in a process known as subduction.

Sub-marine landslides; which are sometimes triggered by large earthquakes; as well as collapses of volcanic edifices, may also disturb the overlying water column as sediment and rocks slide downslope and are redistributed across the sea floor. Similarly, a violent submarine volcanic eruption can uplift the water column and form a tsunami.

Waves are formed as the displaced water mass moves under the influence of gravity to regain its equilibrium and radiates across the ocean like ripples on a pond.

In the 1950s it was discovered that larger tsunamis than previously believed possible could be caused by landslides, explosive volcanic action and impact events. These phenomena rapidly displace large volumes of water, as energy from falling debris or expansion is transferred to the water into which the debris falls. Tsunamis caused by these mechanisms, unlike the ocean-wide tsunamis caused by some earthquakes, generally dissipate quickly and rarely affect coastlines distant from the source due to the small area of sea affected. These events can give rise to much larger local shock waves (solitons), such as the landslide at the head of Lituya Bay which produced a water wave estimated at 50 – 150 m and reached 524 m up local mountains. However, an extremely large landslide could generate a megatsunami that might have ocean-wide impacts.

Read more at this site:
http://www.policybers.com/Ston-to-Syph/tsunami.php

Answer 6

Just because you ask these types of questions doesn't mean you're not still seeing's things narrowly. You always have to look to the whole. It's the brain that likes to divide everything up. That's why science is clueless and constantly forced to question its own pillars of knowledge. The dying process, although temporarily traumatic, by the grace and intelligence of life we never have to suffer for long before we lose consciousness or stop breathing. So your question is rather immature. Karma serves a purpose. Its purpose is to bring a spiritual maturity to the individual. Your narrow way of looking at karma has been polluted and confused with the notion of a punitive God of some description probably because of exposure to religion regardless of whether you consider yourself religious. All life is intelligent. Life forms are simply vehicles for life to manifest in. The form remains in ignorance until it sees into the formless (life). Your death in an earthquake or the like is likely to be far more traumatic for those close to you than yourself. So it is more likely that those left living around you are the ones who have some karma to face. Of course this particular karma would be related to suffering due to false attachment to form instead of acknowledgement of the life within and without. Astrology at best is an approximate marker. Nothing more. It works to the degree that it does because the truth is indeed written in the stars. But the stars are ultimately a projection of the brain rather than a sense perceived knowledge within and as such are limited in the truth they can convey.

Answer 7

well from what they said on the news, the earthquake wasn't big enough to cause a tsunami. as far the chances well there hasn't been one that i know of for at least 30 years. ok having said that, i would think getting ahold of the weather channel would b the best way to get an answer to ur ?. just put a .com after their name. talk to professionals, not yamsters.

Answer 8

I agree with norag. Check with the weather station. I teach Earth Science and don't understand how Hawaii had an earthquake, like you said, they happen along plate boundaries.

Answer 9

no probability as mentioned by media