What Are The Chances Of Asteroid Impact?

Question

What's the risk of the Asteroids on the near-earth-collision list?

Answer 1

"Asteroid With Chance of Hitting Earth in 2029 Now Being Watched 'Very Carefully' "
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_risk_041224.html

Answer 2

In 2029, Apophis will have a near miss with a 1-in-300 chance of impact in 2036. Interdiction plans are already being formulated, most likely a solar-powered rocket will help nudge it from its path. Most agree that nukes would only make it worse, with numerous peices bombarding us.

Not all asteroids have been catalogued or mapped. The scary ones are the ones on a path coming from behind the sun, by the time they are spotted, we'll have 2 years advance warning, not enough time for an interdiction plan. We need at least 10 years advanced warning.

I heard the probability of you waking up on any given morning and seeing a 10km asteroid bearing down on us was a 1-in-20,000 chance....but i cant find the source of that estimate....just something that stuck in my mind.

Answer 3

Supposedly the next closest (and THE closest biggie) one will come closer to us then our moon. (Scary!) If I can find the link I'll add it.

99942 Apophis will be the next closest one, to come by in April 2029.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6914766
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6751433/

"The 2029 event will be the closest brush by a good-sized asteroid known to occur. The rock will pass Earth inside the orbits of some satellites. No other asteroid has ever been clearly visible to the unaided eye.

The asteroid is roughly estimated to be a little more than 1,000 feet (320 meters) wide.

It won't hit
The rock, catalogued as 2004 MN4, was discovered last June. It was seen again in December, and for a time scientists said it had the highest odds of hitting Earth ever given to a space rock. Subsequent observations refined the future path and eliminated those odds for the 2029 flyby. It won't hit the moon, either.

This week, NASA scientists used new observations from the Arecibo Observatory to further pin down the track of 2004 MN4.

On April 13, 2029, it will be about 22,600 miles (36,350 kilometers) from Earth's center. That is just below the altitude of geosynchronous satellites, which hover in fixed perches above the planet to communicate with and collect data on half the globe at all times."




Neat NASA pages - Near Earth Object Program
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/

Answer 4

The chances are 100% that the earth gets hit by an asteroid of some kind. Happens all the time. Just have to keep an eye on the big ones. Maybe we will be living on mars by then and all will be happy happy..

Answer 5

In our life time 1 in millions but chances of an impact on earth is 100% it has happened before and it will happen again, when is the question. The Asteroid Belt around Juputer is enourmous so statisticly it is nearly impossible to figure out.

Answer 6

Asteroids are constently hitting the Earth. If you are asking about a big one that could kill us, it ain't happening anytime soon. Don't worry about it.

Answer 7

It's very small since we track a lot of them. The only "chances" that we could get hit without knowing is if we find one too late (because the Sun didn't light it up early enough.)

Also, because we have an atmosphere, MOST small rocks from space get desintegrated when entering the atmosphere.

Answer 8

Earth is hit by asteroids every day...

Answer 9

Eventually, 100%

Answer 10

Chances are pretty good that it will happen some time but, not in the near future.