when is the next big quake for LA gonna happen?

Question

and will it hit venice beach bad?
im curious.
if so, how many people are estimated to die?

Answer 1

The last one happened in 1857 (centered near Ft Tejon). The recurance interval on the San Andreas is about 100-150 years, but the time between major earthquakes can be over 250 years. The first site says "large earthquakes ... occurred in A.D. 1857, 1812, and about 1700, 1610, and 1470"

So, we are 'overdue,' but that term is not very useful.

http://www.data.scec.org/general/PhaseII.html
This link has a map of seismic potential. This is based in size, strength, and location of major known faults. Other MAJOR factors like soil type and unknown faults are not accounted for.

This is what Dr. Jackson of UCLA told me, a leading geophysics researcher:

Earthquakes follow NO predictable pattern. People have tried and tried, with no luck. They may have accidentally predicted one, but they can not predict anything consistantly.

Earthquakes fall into 3 categories. Some do behave well, they have foreshocks, they show subtle signs, and have aftershocks very nicely. They are still not predictable, but they are closer to being predicted. Some have no warning at all and never show any signs of going. The third group follow no pattern at all, they go seemingly randomly, and they can not even be estimated. It is very hard to tell which fault will be in which group, and this is why prediction is still several breakthroughs away.

The USGS and SCEC recently said a moderately-sized mid-7 earthquake would cause 18,000 deaths (third link). And just imagine... LA is one of the most prepared cities in the country... just imagine if Salt Lake, Seattle, or St. Louis/Memphis are hit by their large earthquakes that they get every now and then.

Answer 2

O! if only seismology could predict earthquakes, then nobody would doubt geologists. It can't. Just like the weather, geologists can talk about percentages in a given number of years, but that is all. How many people will die? That depends upon the magnitude of the quake, the epicenter of the quake, local response, mistakes made, the list goes on. Given the recent track record of FEMA I think it could be much worse than it should be.

Answer 3

That is the whole point:: NOBODY KNOWS

Answer 4

Bad, real bad.................