Dick Cheney's 1% Doctrine -- probabilities of success or failure about WMD's?

Question

Cheney's 1% Doctrine posits that if there is only a 1% chance of our enemies using or obtaining WMD's we must respond as if the threat was 100%. When you take action based on a 1% certainty, what are the probabilitys that your assumption is correct vs incorrect. Is there a 99% probability that your assumption is incorrect, or something less?

Answer 1

Anything Cheney says or does or act upon is 100% incorrect. For example, if you drink a lot of alcohol, and go hunting, you have a good chance of having an accident. He therefore went hunting, drank 100% of the time, but shot only 1% of his friend's face off.