Did you know that the world is possibly going to end on March 13, 2026?

Question

Scientists predict that a large asteroid has the change of hitting the earth in 2019 but an even greater chance when it comes back around in 2026. Its going to cross between the earth and the moon and could have the potential to hit the earth. Its a 1-1000 chance that it will hit earth but thats a pretty good chance isnt it?

Answer 1

I think you mean April 13, 2029 and April 13 2036, This "news" (and its almost instant repudiation) is nearly two years old,

There was such a prediction, It was then revised within 72 hours (at Christmas 2004) when the orbit was calculated more precisely,

Space,com reported this on 27th December 2004 as follows:

Whew! Asteroid Won't Hit Earth in 2029, Scientists Now Say
By Robert Roy Britt
Senior Science Writer
posted: 27 December 2004
08:15 pm ET

The world can exhale a collective sigh of relief. A newfound asteroid tagged with the highest warning level ever issued will not strike Earth, scientists said Monday.

"An Earth impact on April 13, 2029 can now be ruled out," read a statement issued Monday evening by asteroid experts Don Yeomans, Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory."

(see second link for the full story)

The asteroid is called 99942 Apophis and the date was 2029 not 2019. And it "comes back around" once every 323.587 days, not once in 7 years, it is just that 7 Earth years is approximately 8 Apophis years and so closer approaches of the two bodies will be once in every 7 Earth years.

You may of course have heard or read about some other asteroid but unless you name it, we cannot look it up and find out the current state of predictions about it,

Only gutter press journalists would report "an asteroid will hit earth". Scientists will name the asteroid in question and the currently estimated likelihood of impact on a specified date, And revise the estimate once more data comes in,

NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS

As of August 31, 2006, 4,187 NEO's have been discovered: 57 near-Earth comets and 4,130 near-Earth asteroids. Of those there are 330 Aten asteroids (of which Apophis is one), 1,613 Amor asteroids, and 2,181 Apollo asteroids. There are 792 NEO's which are classified as potentially hazardous asteroids.

NOT EVERY ASTEROID IS A POTENTIAL THREAT

This is out of a total of some 342,358 known asteroids (as of September 17th 2006) in the asteroid belt inbetween Mars and Jupiter, Only a tiny percent are Mars-crossing objects i.e. come closer to the Sun than 1.5 AU, The gravitational influence of the giant planet Jupiter "marshals" the vast majority to stay within the 2.5 AU to 5 AU region of the Solar System.

And even if an object's perihelion (the closest to the Sun that it gets) is as close as 1 AU, it does not follow that it will come near the Earth. We might be on the far side of the Sun at the time, for example, and when six months later we are in the region of space the asteroid reached at perihelion, it has long since gone home again.

ASSESSING THE RISK

There are two schemes for classification of impact hazards:

(1) the simple Torino Scale and
(2) the more complex Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale

On 25 December 2004, 99942 Apophis was assigned a 4 on the Torino scale, the highest rating so far. At 27 December 2004 there was a 2.7% chance of Earth impact on the 13 April 2029. However, on 28 December 2004, the risk of impact dropped to zero for 2029, but, due to a resonant return possibility the Torino rating for an April 2036 impact rose to 4 in early 2005 and, as of August 2006, has dropped gradually to a Torino rating of 0 (zero). The Palermo rating (August 2006) is −2.25.

Currently, the only known NEO with a Palermo scale value greater than zero is (29075) 1950 DA, which is predicted to pass very close to or collide with the Earth (p≤0.003) (i.e. less than 3 chances in a 1,000) in the year 2880.

If this collision were to happen, the energy released by a collision with (29075) 1950 DA would cause an extinction event which would destroy most life on the planet. However, humanity has over 800 years to refine its estimates of the orbit of (29075) 1950 DA, and to deflect it if necessary.

NASA maintains a continuously updated web page of the most significant NEO threats in the next 100 years - all or nearly all of which are highly likely to drop off the list eventually as more data comes in enabling more accurate predictions; however, that page does not, of course, include 1950 DA, because that will not strike for at least 800 years.

Spaceguard is a joint effort by NASA, the European Space Agency and others to keep tabs on possible asteroid impactors, Any object that registers a positive score on the Risk Assessment scales is immediately investigated further, As the dates for Apophis given above make clear, even at Christmas, a revised and more accurate estimate was achieved within 72 hours.

APOPHIS

On August 5, 2006, Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 Torino impact hazard scale. As of August 5, 2006 the impact probability for April 13, 2036 is estimated at 1 in 43,000. Two additional impact dates, one in 2037 and the other in 2054, have been identified, however the impact probability for those is 1 in 11.8 million and 1 in 370 million respectively.

None of which can remotely be called a pretty good chance. So I think the incurably paranoid can sleep a smidgeon more easily in their beds tonight, cuddling their "Don't Panic!" Towels, as they do so. Until the next unsubstantiated rumour comes around ...

Answer 2

I would just like to underline what others have said, For a claim to be taken seriously, we need to know

(a) the name of the asteroid
(b) how big it is ("large" is not a precise answer)
(c) when impact is supposed to occur
(d) what probability of an actual impact was predicted
(e) when the prediction was made and by whom
(f) what Palermo or Torino rating was assigned to the possibility of impact and when that rating was assigned (ratings change all the time as new data is received and assessed).

Armed with that information, we can check if the rating has been subsequently revised or not.

The size matters. Anything 1 kilometre in diameter or larger could produce an extinction event. Apophis was estimated as being 400 metres in diameter on discovery, since revised downwards to 320 metres. This size of asteroid would cause significant damage in the vicinity of the impact point but would not threaten the existence of life on earth, So conveying the size of the asteroid indicates the scale of the damage that it might cause,

A recent question on these pages expressed concern that the Mayan Calendar allegedly predicted the earth would be destroyed by an asteroid in December 2012,

An astute answerer pointed out that as no asteroids were discovered till 1801 and the term was not even invented (by Herschel) till 1802, it was difficult to see how the Mayans could possibly have conceptualised that it was an asteroid that would bring about the end of the world,

I think that is a good example of how a sceptical intelligence should scrutinise inadequate, vague and woolly "information" spread by rumours and over the internet.

Caveat emptor!

Answer 3

The end of the present age, not the world, is predicted to happen by something resembling a mountain of fire falling from the sky, in the Bible, Revelation 8:5 - 8. There's no date given for it. The end of the world is predicted 1000 years after Jesus returns to earth. He is coming!

Answer 4

World Schmurld- End Schmend- Apocalypse Schmocalypse

Answer 5

There is always a chance that something will hit the earth and everything will end. I freaked out once in 3rd grade because this mean boy told be the earth was going to blow up that night.

Live your life in the moment.

It is not the destination that matters, but the journey that takes you there.

Answer 6

Please don't worry about this. They've been talking about dates the world will end since I was a kid (and I'm 41). The dates always pass...with no occurrances.
If it does happen...you won't even notice...it will happen so fast. My guess is that it won't though. If it becomes a threat...our scientist will come up with some magical thing to solve it before it gets here....like shoot at it or something.......don't worry when you hear stuff like this ok? All will be fine.

Answer 7

it was 2027 !!! in the same documentary they said that we might have one chance to destroy it when it gets close enough but if we miss then we would know how long we have to live till it hits earth, we could calculate the exact time when it will reach us and the scientist wonder how would we as humans will react, when we know how long we have left to live. Will we obey laws, respect each other ,etc,etc.

Answer 8

oh i dont want to think about the future, it scares me so bad.

we'd probably die from a nuclear war by then anyways dont you think? mann if the world ended on march 13 2026 i wouldn't even be able to reach my 26 birthday, how much does that suck?

Answer 9

i understand whilst the international will end, yet only like countless of those human beings i will tell it the two after the reality or placed it so a strategies sooner or later its indisuputable so we could for arguments sake say the international will end the day formerly on the instant and this is our souls pretending to nevertheless be alive

Answer 10

I think the world will end on December 12, 2012 at 12:00.