Will korea's nuclear test send oil prices high again?

Answer 1

Probably not, because North Korea isn't itself an oil producing country.

North Korea has been suspected of having a nuclear bomb for several years. This recent test was only a confirmation of that suspicion. As last month's North Korean rocket test proved they don't have the capability to hit the US (their major enemy) with a nuclear attack. If they were foolish enough to try it then the US could easily bomb them back into the Stone Age, the US wouldn't even have to use its own nuclear weapons to do it, nor any that might be based in South Korea.

If North Korea tried to attack the US with nuclear weapons then the US would know very quickly, that's what multi-million dollar spy satellites are for. It is possible that the US could even shoot some of those missiles down. It depends on a lot of factors, but North Korea doesn't have a lot of missiles so it will be easier to do.

If the US were attacked with a nuclear weapon, then the response would be immediate. Our own military has contingency plans for just such an attack and they can start it in just moments after the President gives the command.

Because, the situation is so thorny between the US and China, the US would be reluctant to use nuclear weapons so close to China. China was also North Korea's ally in the 1950s. The times have changed, but the two countries are still close and China takes a lot of offense whenever a nation tries to do something in the Chinese Sphere of Influence. Thanks to the problems in the Middle East America can't get involved in a war. We also know that the North Korean people have been heavily indoctrinated to believe that the US is their mortal enemy. A land invasion of North Korea would make the US problems in Iraq look like "a walk in the park." So the best solution would be to bomb North Korea back into the Stone Age. They wouldn't be a threat to the US anymore and the US could let China get bogged down in humanitarian relief efforts.

Now if Iran tried this then the price of gasoline would quickly reach $5.00/gallon. This is the biggest fear we have in the Middle East, and Iran is well on its way to developing its own nuclear weapon. It is suspected that Pakastian and North Korea may have helped Iran in its bomb program. North Korea has provided some missile technology so Iran can attack its neighbors. This threat alone would create a huge rise in the price of oil just as the fear that Iran might stop selling oil when Israel was fighing Hezbollah. It didn’t happen, but the simple fear of that threat was enough to drive the market crazy. Now that the war has stopped the fear is gone and the price of gas has dropped. This is how sensitive the Middle East is to the world economy. When Iran finishes it nuclear program and builds a bomb then that will be a real threat and the prices will sky rocket. This is going to happen in the next 10 years, if not the next 10 months.

It has been a great fear that North Korea could sell its nuclear weapons to enemies of the West in the Middle East. If that was done then that group that got those weapons would use them, and potentially spark off WW3 with nuclear weapons. But, that hasn’t happened yet. The North Korean dictator is not a fool, if WW3 starts then their own nuclear weapons would loose their value.

North Korea is a starving nation. They have a history of using nuclear blackmail to get help from the West. With Iran getting so much attention, they have stold the nuclear stage from North Korea. Now the US is trying to use the “carrot”, with trade deals and other consecions to get Iran to stop its nuclear program. This isn’t working so the next question is what “stick” can the US use without getting both feet and a hand chopped off in the process. North Korea wants these trade conscecions, and this attention and they are losing it to the Middle East so they have decided to ramp up the nuclear effort. In effect North Korea is willing to trade nukes for food.

North Korea’s nuclear program isn’t going to have much effect on the price of oil. They have not sold their nukes there and soon Iran won’t need them to do so. North Korea is just looking for some attention and trade bribes. It has a long history of this “nuclear blackmail” and so far it has kept itself safely from the brink of any real consquences. This recent nuclear test isn’t a surprise and is just North Korea’s attempt to get some attention and make itself seem like a threat. North Korea will only use its nuclear weapons if it is threatened. Iran will use its nuclear weapons. They won’t use them themselves, they will simply “sell” them to Hezbollah, which Iran founded in 1982. Once Hezbollah get nuclear weapons there is no question that they will use them, it will only be a matter of hours or days. If this happens, or rather WHEN it happens then the US could see the price of gasoline going up to $10.00/gallon!

Answer 2

i do no longer think of there could be any concessions by any potential. Bush senior withdrew nuclear weapons from South Korea, and then Clinton basically gave the PDRK a nuclear reactor. South Korea has been keeping the gentle coverage, yet nonetheless there is not any substitute of attitude interior the north. severe seas interdiction could be held out as a effect of extra exams. it may be humiliating for Kim to have his ships stopped at sea and inspected. what's extra humiliating is the reality that there could be drugs, counterfeit money, missiles, and so forth. onboard. there is no longer very lots he can do to circumvent that, it quite is not as though the PDRK has lots of a army. i think of the 6 way talks could proceed if achievable. China, Japan, Russia and the RIK has as much as stake in this because of the fact the country, so as that they could be on the table.

Answer 3

I would have to say no since Asia is not a player in oil for us, especially North Korea since it is a communist country. It's unfortuante that North Korea has to perform these nuclear tests especially since I have family in North Korea, South Korea and my aunt just left to visit my cousin today who is in South Korea.

Answer 4

No. The only thing that will send oil prices up is a lack of supply or increased use.

Answer 5

hmm, good question. oil prices hate instability. However, asia is not a major producer of oil.
I think- no, it will not affect oil prices. Unlike Nigeria, Iraq, Iran, etc, NK is not a player in the world oil market.

Answer 6

Coupled with instability in Nigeria and OPEC hints at cutting production, it may drive prices up in the short term. How it plays out in the long term will depend on how the world reacts and how that reaction affects global geopolitical stability.

Answer 7

Have you ever known them to miss an opportunity?

Answer 8

Yes, because any excuse will do.