Does anyone know the equation/algorithm to figure out what the banker's offer will be on deal or no deal?

Question

I'm not asking for a formula to beat the game overall, just calculate the bank offer.

No, its not the average.

Answer 1

Good question. I tried working it out once. I believed that it would be based on the average (or expected value) of the cases, but then take a certain percentage of that average. However that formula turned out to not be consistent.

My best guess (and it's only a guess) is that there is some base formula (most likely using the average), and perhaps some adjustments to it, but then the banker (or a panel of operators behind the scenes) makes other subjective adjutments. These would depend on things such as the most recent amount revealed, the attitude/reaction of the player, even the time of day (how close they are to the end of the hour), etc.

I read an interview of Monty Hall one time, talking about the famous "switch or no switch" problem at the end of "Let's Make a Deal." If everything is random, and Hall opens an empty door for the contestant, it's statistically better to switch every time. However he described all of the other factors that go into the decision to either open a door or offer more money, including the subjective items above. A lot of it depends on the contestant's attitude.

So my guess is that there's no absolute formula.

Answer 2

from what i've seen, isn't it just the average? let's say there are 2 cases left....one at 1 cent and one at 1,000,000..the offer would be 500,000 of the unseen cases (not including YOUR case).... if the offer was 1 cent, 10 dollars and 1,000,000..the deal would be approximately 333,000. they round up to make it easier. it looks like an average....