exit polling?

Answer 1

The purpose of an exit poll is to get a provisional result of the election for the news media between the end of voting and the beginning of counting.

The last Presidential election in the US was a specacular "failure" for exit polls in nthat they predicted one result and the actual was the opposite. The reason I've heard is because votes that were disallowed in key marginal states were mostly Democrat votes. I mean disallowed for technicalities like chads. (Why is politically contentious.)

In Britain there was a similar failure in 1997 when exit polls suggested a balanced parliament (with no party having an overall majority) and in the end John Major's Conservatives won reasonably comfortably. Significantly, the swing in the first seat to be declared, Sunderland South, was a much better indicator of what was to come nationally than the exit poll. Even though Sunderland South is atypical, being a very working-class urban industrial safe old-Labour seat.

Exit polls in the UK were much closer to the truth in the 2005 general election. Pollsters, like everyone else, learn from their mistakes.

I think you'll find that in countries with proportional representation, exit poll forecasts of the makeup of the elected house are often within a couple of seats here and there of the final outcome.

Answer 2

If conducted scientifically (correct sample size, varied locations, etc...) these can be a fairly good indicator of who will win/lose. Exit polls conducted by organizations like Gallup or Roper (in the U.S.) are usually done very well. However, some news reporter shoving a microphone in the face of random voters as they leave the polling location -- you should be skeptical of those polls.

Answer 3

You may not be able to messi with the numbers, but you can mess with their minds. Leave them thinking "who let this nut out of Aunt Sarah's fruitcake?" thoughts. It will give them a reason to thins what the country is really coming to and give you a reason to smile. It will make people wonder what you are thinking.

Answer 4

Lie to the exit pollers. Screw up the results and let the networks have egg on their faces.