It is common for public opinion polls to have a cofidence level of 95%, meaning that there is a 0.95 probability that the poll results are accurate within the claimed margins of error. If six different organizations conduct independent polls, what is the probability that all six of them are accurate within the claimed margins of error? Does the result suggest that with a confidence level of 95%, we can expect that almost all polls will be within the claimed margin of error?
2006-09-21 12:18:18 · 2 answers · asked by rocky 3 in Science & Mathematics ➔ Mathematics
The probability that all 6 are accurate is:
The chance that the first is accurate (0.95) times the chance the second is accurate (0.95) times the chance the third is accurate (0.95), etc.
This is:
0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 = 0.95 ^ 6
This is approximately: 0.735 or 73.5%
So no, you cannot claim with 95% confidence that all six polls will be within the claimed margin of error.
2006-09-21 13:46:54 · answer #1 · answered by Puzzling 7 · 0⤊ 0⤋
9x6=54
2006-09-21 12:39:34 · answer #2 · answered by siarta i 1 · 0⤊ 0⤋