What is the long term outcome in Iraq?

Question

Many observers are now calling the violence in Iraq a "civil war." If it is a civil war, and the U.S. leaves in the next 18 months for that reason, what is the long term outcome in Iraq? And what are the consequences for the United States and the international community?

Answer 1

Well, unfortunately for the people of Iraq, the short term outlook is bleak. I wouldn't categorize what is going on now as a "civil war"; rather it should be called "ethnic violence" because as of yet the demands for splitting the country apart or changing the ruling government have not seriously materialized. The violence seems relatively unorganized. Even though our military is quick to label anyone causing any sort of violent trouble in Iraq an 'insurgent' it simply isn't the case that they're all 'insurgents'; many are just angry citizens directing their anger at eachother. Do not forget Gujurat in India, where thousands of muslims and hindus fought to the death only a few years ago; no one categorized that as an 'insurgency'. However, it appears that the violence will not abate, and, inevitably will spiral into a civil war with organized factions trying to gain power. In the relatively short term, we probably will see Iraq split. First, and independent Kurdistan is ultimately going to happen. Fighting will likely continue between Shiite and Sunni factions with significant bloodshed only worsened by the anarchist, pro-saddam and pro-al qaeda militants we have seen since the liberation of the country. For a short period of time, our troops will likely be caught in the crossfire until they are ultimately withdrawn from the country altogether. The poorly equiped and poorly trained Iraqi National Army as well as local police forces will be unable to control (and might themselves become involved in) the sectarian violence. Sunnis and Shiites will each demand a part of the country as their own; however, neither will want to split the remaining country in two. Iraq's economy will falter, and the country will likely see a significant depression. Ultimately, some sort of unity government (which would only, sadly, emerge after years of pointless bloodshed) will likely emerge and for a whort while at least come to power. Kurdistan, meanwhile, will likely enjoy some degree of economic prosperity after it breaks away. However, it may ultimately face a threat from Turkey which may seek to occupy the region.

Answer 2

The shites and Sunni's have been fighting for thousands of years. Islamic religion is a very violent religious sect. They have no tolerance for anyone including their own people. This is due to the fact that Islamic Muslims are killing each other. The long term outcome in Iraq is the same as it is today. The USA will remain in Iraq for at least 10 years. It will take that long for Iraqi to get it's program and forces together to at least have some sort of defense for the survival of the Democratic rule. Which will fall as soon as the US forces leave. Look as long as the Islamic religious sect continue to coddle the radical Islams that have declared Holy War on the Infidels of the USA, the world will always be at war. Wake up America as Islam is moving in to take over the world for one religion. To be one Islamic State. Now this would not be to bad except that the Islamic people can not ever control their selves from killing each other. If I don't speak the truth then please tell me one country that Islam is in that is not killing in the name of Alla?

Answer 3

USA won't be leaving until they have the oil secured. Iraq and Afghanistan are needed both for internal oil reserves and for the construction of a pipeline from countries north of Afganistan to the ocean, something will have to be done about Pakistan soon, their territory is needed also. You will likely see more troops in Iraq to support a puppet govenment using terror and death squads to controll the people, just like South America and the Shah of Iran were. The out of controll death squads of Iran seem to be well connected to the current government and to US intelligence agencies. You should be expecting this to go on at least another 10 to 15 years.

Answer 4

That's a lot of questions in one! Long term outcome: things will quiet down. Either because there are no more people to kill or because they come to their senses. Consequences for US: people will think they have finally come to their senses. But I don't know if they will become so popular again that they will get enough oil. On the other hand, they will have money to decrease their budget deficit a little. Consequences for the international community: economic crisis because of the terrible economic situation in the US, pressure on Israel to finally contribute seriously to the peace process in the Middle East.

Answer 5

When we leave there will probably be an open conflict for dominance over there. Then we will be looking at a Sunni run Islamic based government. The Kurdish people in the north will probably attempt to declare Independence which could result in a conflict with Turkey as a large part of the Kurdish population occupies Turkish territory.

As for the US, it could take decades for us to gain any semblance of credibility in international affairs. Sadly it take much longer for a polarized nation to begin healing and working with at least some sense of unity here.

Answer 6

We attacked Iraq without any provication from them. Remember the Bush Doctrin which went against the UN ruling? Where he said it was ok to attack first? Well that ruined our international crediability right there. Now we are either digging our grave deeper or trying to mend fences. Personally, I see us digging deeper.

As for Iraq, civil war is imenant. There will be fightening in that country for atleast 10 more years. Iran is eyeing Iraq and waiting for the right time to enter that country (my guess is as soon as America leaves, when ever that will be)

Answer 7

It is not a civil war. The last time the shia and the sunni fought, 1,000,000 soldiers died in combat. It was called the Iran/Iraq war.

Answer 8

I fully agree with a 3 Independent State, and strongly endorse the Kurds having their own state.

Answer 9

Are people here too young to recall Viet Nan? We found a similar was to stop the Red menace. We said we will never leave. We declare victory, left so quickly, that we dumped aircraft in the ocean to make room for more landings, We actually declared victory. When will we learn?

Answer 10

One thing not to look for as far as long term outcomes: Bush will never admit to any mistakes made in the conception or execution of this war.