What do you think Winter 2006-2007 will be like?

Question

What do you think Winter 2006-2007 will be like? Many predict it will be cold. For example, both Farmer's almanacs predict a cold and snowy winter for 2006-2007 while last year one predicted cold and snowy and one predicted hot and dry. The one who predicted hot and dry was right. Plus many forcasters and weather folk lore people believe this could be a big winter by that I mean cold, snowy, and long. Only the Government is predicting a warm winter, but this is from the same people who said Hurricane season this year would be as bad if not worse than last year! So what do you think? I hope it will be cold and snowy!

Just to let you know, I live in Louisville, Ky unfortinatly!

Did we or did we not have El-nino last year or the year before that? El Nino only happens I believe every 7 years. Well as I said, the same people who said El Nino this year and warm winter this year are the same who predicted a Hurricane Season this year to be as bad or worse than last year.

Answer 1

It will be cold and snowy this year!

Answer 2

The so-called "bust" of the hurricane season forecast this year indicates nothing about the skill of the current seasonal forecast valid for this winter.

One common factor in both though is El Niño. It is known that El Niño conditions are related to an increase the wind shear over a good portion of the Atlantic basin, which by its nature will hinder, if not prevent, tropical cyclone formation.

Unfortunately, we can't really predict when an El Niño will initiate. They also involve a long chain of events that happen in order that, once set up, affect climate patterns through the next spring. They don't necessarily follow perfect cycles, and each one is also different in strength and effects.

Right now it appears that moderate El Niño conditions will affect this winter...so I'd put money on what the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting for this winter.

And there's never a shortage of people that "wishcast" a prolonged snowy winter, no matter what cimatic signals are staring us in the face.

Answer 3

cartier95 - could'nt have said it better myself :)

This is a slightly different question though. If you look here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml

you'll see that warm anomalies are establishing off the coast of South America and extending from there in a band across the equatorial Pacific. This is the classic El Niño pattern, which is likely to strengthen during the coming months. How much of an effect that would have on this winter is questionable - time is needed for this to affect equatorial convection and the large scale flow regimes.

Last winter in the Poconos was characterized by extended spells of warm & chilly weather - neither of a record-breaking magnitude - the end result of which was temperatures about 1.4° above normal, about 3.5 inches more precipitation than normal, and 16 inches less snow than normal. We are still having that tendency as evidenced by the chilly (but not terribly so) weather from late August to the present. So it is questionable to me at which point El Niño would take effect to the extent that warm weather becomes the dominant pattern with some record maximum temperatures. I expect to some extent this season, but probably more so during the 2007-8 one if El Niño persists.

I am not that familiar with the specific effects of El Niño in your area, though they generally tend to be warm & dry. I can say that we still can get quite a bit of snow in the Poconos because of the elevation - most places around us getting rain.

Answer 4

I've heard that this is an el nino year. I live in southeast texas and this year is not suppossed to be as cold and more rain storms are in the winter forecast, but what do I know.

I hope it's wrong, I would love a cold snowy winter, although it doesn't snow that often here.

Answer 5

I read on yahoo about a week earlier that el nino will begin shortly like in october. That means the weather of the world will be weird for the next six to nine months. However to answer your question it claims that a warmer winter is expected in the north eastern us. Also el nino happens about every 3 to 4 years with a severe one about every seven years.

Answer 6

Western states will be generally dry and if it is going to rain there it's probably going to flooding, also snowy. Southeastern states (where I live) are going to have a wet first half of winter and a drought-like last half of winter, similar to last year. Central states are going to stormy due to the frontal systems coming through and after the fronts are gone there'll be lots of snow. Northern states (excluding Alaska) will have lots of snow. Northeastern states will have snowy conditions.

Answer 7

there will be a weak el nino. This will enhance precip in the southern states from california to florida.

The rest of the us will be highly variable east of the rockies.
The arctic oscillation and the north atlantic oscillation will have a greater impact on the weather in the NE and East

Answer 8

It will be colder than normal and snowy in the Northeast and Midwest. The Southern tier of states and Southeast will be warmer and wetter than normal. The West will be above normal and dry from the Rockies to the coast.

Answer 9

I live in Texas, and considering El Niño is coming back into play this coming winter, it's gonna be a cold and wet one.

Answer 10

I live in Michigan and I heard that because of El nino that we are going to be dryer then normal but we had a hot summer so I don't believe any one . so as the saying goes in michigan wait five minutes and the weather will change