Here's a good article from MarketWatch
Top 11 'lazy' one-fund miniportfolios
Hybrid funds go by many names, and are perfect for many investors
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:26 PM ET Aug 30, 2006
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Question: What's the absolute laziest of "lazy portfolios?" Answer: Hybrid funds. Why? You only need one! Yep, the beauty of the hybrid is that it takes just one fund to make an entire "lazy portfolio!"
"Lazy portfolios" are those lovable low-cost well-diversified portfolios of eleven or less no-load funds that level out bull and bear markets. See previous Paul B. Farrell.
Hybrids are perfect for many investors: Newbie investors with little cash, back-to-school kids, newborn babies and wannabe hedgers. We've got 11 winners for you.
These lazy hybrids remind me of that old Greyhound bus jingle: "Take the bus and leave the driving to us." Similarly, hybrids do all the driving, tinkering and heavy lifting for you, all that headache buying, selling, trading and rebalancing. Their portfolios mix stocks and bonds. In bull market managers beef up stocks. In bears they downshift into bonds. You enjoy the ride.
Remember, hybrids are not only lazy, they're boring. So if your ego has a strong macho need to "feel the action" playing the market, forget hybrids, you need Nascar. But they're ideal for many investors in the slower lanes:
·Cheapo "starter" portfolio. Hybrids are so boring we tend to forget they exist in a world where every day we're assaulted by thousands of ads selling 18,000 funds, 8,000 stocks and 100,000-plus bonds. But they're great for newbies just starting out, like Norman who asked about starting a lazy portfolio. But with only $7,000, he couldn't even buy into the smallest four-fund lazy portfolio (each has a minimum initial investment of $3,000). So a hybrid makes a great starter miniportfolio.
·Back-to-school kids' lesson plan. Hey parents, you got kids going back to school. You're buying all kinds of clothes, books, supplies, a new computer. There's one thing they're probably not going to get in school: A course on investing! Schools are weak in training kids about money, economics and investing. So here are two essential lessons they probably won't learn for a couple decades: the power of compounding and the advantage of starting early. For example, if you start in your twenties, invest regularly in your IRA and 401(k) you'll retire a millionaire.
·Newborn baby's retirement gift. A 60-year-old reader told me that when he and his sisters were born back in the 1930s his grandparents bought $1,000 in mutual funds for each. Flash forward. The money was invested in different funds over the years, but thanks to 60 years compounding his account was worth $1.8 million. And when his older sister turned 65 she had almost $5 million, thanks to more aggressive investing.
·Poor man's hedge fund. Hedge funds make big headlines. But the truth is, they're a rich man's game and most have minimum investments of $250,000 to a $1 million, which knocks out the average investor whose portfolio averages less than $50,000. Worse yet, the vast majority of American investors can't even get into most hedge funds. Morningstar tells me there are 3,468 hedge funds in addition to their database of 18,833 mutual funds. Most aren't open to new investors, all but 468 have minimums over $25,000, and just 122 have minimums of $3,000 or less. So, most investors are cut out of the hedge fund market.
Hybrid mutual funds are perfect for Joe and Jane Main Street. But they wear lots of name tags, so they're like mislabeled merchandize! For example, the Morningstar hybrid category has more than 500 funds with a wide range of names: balanced, asset allocation, life-cycle, capital appreciation, growth-and-income, equity-income, fund-of-funds and even convertible bond funds. Here are 11 top picks to get you thinking:
Balanced funds
They have a fixed ratio, usually 60/40 stocks and bonds, more stocks in good times, more bonds in bad, and are constantly rebalanced to fit market conditions. The gold standard is Dodge & Cox Balanced (DODBX :
Dodge & Cox Balanced
DODBX85.24, +0.11, +0.1%) , which typically outperforms the hedge fund index and the S&P 500. A no-load launched in 1931, the fund currently manages about $25 billion. Morningstar says its 10-year average annual return of 13.1% trounced the S&P 500's 8.8%. The fund is closed to new investors. So put them on your watch list, and pray they reopen.
Other popular balanced hybrids: Vanguard Wellington (VWELX :
Vanguard Wellington;Inv
VWELX32.10, +0.01, +0.0%) was launched in 1929 and is the largest, managing $41.5 billion. Ten-year returns are 11.1%. Fidelity Puritan (FPURX :
Fidelity Puritan
FPURX19.68, 0.00, 0.0%) has been around since 1947, manages $23.5 billion and has average 10.1% returns the past decade. Oakmark Equity-Income (OAKBX :
Oakmark Eqty & Inc;I
OAKBX26.50, -0.03, -0.1%) manages $10.7 and its 10-year return of 13.8% is best among my picks.
Asset allocation funds
They have wider flexibility than balanced funds. Vanguard Asset Allocation Fund (VAAPX :
Vanguard Asset Alloc;Inv
VAAPX26.61, +0.01, +0.0%) manages $11.3 billion in assets and boasts 9.3% average annual returns. Fidelity Asset Manager (FASMX :
Fidelity Asset Manager
FASMX16.37, +0.02, +0.1%) was launched in 1988 and manages $9.2 billion with a 7.7% 10-year average return. TIAA-CREF Managed Allocation (TIMAX :
TIAA-CREF:Mgd Alloc
TIMAX11.78, +0.03, +0.3%) is a relatively newcomer with just $535 million in assets, but its 4.7% five-year average return beat the S&P 500's 2.7%.
Life-cycle funds
These guys are the laziest of the laziest. You decide when you're going to retire, save regularly and park your money for decades. Over time these life-cycle funds tend to match or beat the broad market.
Life-style retirement funds usually come in sets of four. Fidelity has four Freedom Funds, designated 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2040, depending on when you plan to retire. For example, Fidelity Freedom 2040 (FFFFX :
Fidelity Freedom 2040
FFFFX9.05, +0.01, +0.1%) has $4.2 billion and its 4.6% return the past five years beat the S&P 500's 2.8%. Vanguard's four life-cycle funds focus on risk: Income, Conservative Growth, Moderate Growth and Growth. Investors pick funds with less risk (and more bonds) as retirement approaches. For example, their Growth fund (VASGX :
Vanguard LS Growth;Inv
Sponsored by:
VASGX22.17, +0.03, +0.1%) manages about $7.6 billion and its 10-year average is just under the S&P 500's.
Funds of funds
These hybrids invest in other funds rather than directly in stocks and bonds. There are two kinds. Large fund families have them investing in their own funds, such as Vanguard STAR (VGSTX :
Vanguard STAR;Inv
VGSTX20.22, +0.04, +0.2%) investing in nine other Vanguard funds. STAR has $12.8 billion in assets and its 10-year annual average of 9.4% beat the S&P 500. Another is T. Rowe Price Spectrum Growth (PRSGX :
PRSGX19.21, +0.05, +0.3%) , a $3.0 billion fund with a 9.0% 10-year average. You only pay one layer of fees. In contrast, independent funds of funds invest outside their small fund families, adding a second layer of fees that result in lower returns.
Bottom line: Hybrids are a perfect choice for many, many investors. Best of all, these "lazy" one-fund miniportfolios help you beat the market with no rebalancing and put you on the path to retiring a millionaire!
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And here's another good article:
PAUL B. FARRELL
Six strategies for a new bear
'Planet of the Apes' poll triggers review of markets on edge
Last Update: 7:42 PM ET May 22, 2006
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- You and I invest in a world where truth is a rare commodity, where guidance from our leaders is all too often misleading propaganda. Today we are not merely skeptical of what we hear, distrustful of everything, fearful of some unknown next shoe dropping ... we doubt ourselves, question our judgment.
In our recent "Planet of the Apes" poll, readers gave the reason for this pervasive distrust: Greed is eroding credibility at the top. See previous Paul B. Farrell.
But so what! Savvy investors remind us that "greed is good" is Wall Street's motto today and always will be. Scandals and reform movements come and go, bulls and bears come and go, but savvy investors know greed is part of the game, they accept that most leaders are not only greedy, "more really never is enough."
Instead, the savvy investor asks a different question: "How do I protect myself from their greed?" They know house odds always favor insiders. So let's review six alternative strategies that you better consider to prepare for the bear market many experts predict. Six strategies to consider if you're looking long-term for a way to survive and thrive.
The recent "Planet of the Apes" poll was about identifying the biggest skimmers, the insiders siphoning the most money off the top of Main Street investors' returns.
In our poll, the Giant Apes ("Rulers") and Orangutans ("Puppet Leaders") were the biggest offenders in this order: Corporate CEOs got the most votes. They were the greediest. Next came Washington politicians, then Wall Street's investment bankers and mutual fund company owners. Those four categories received two-thirds of the vote as the worst skimmers, the greediest, and least trustworthy.
Reader response confirms the widespread public impression that skimming is pervasive. And as in the "Planet of the Apes" movies, humanoid investors are not only at the mercy of the apes conspiracy that controls America's financial system, there is very little that investors can do to change the system. In fact, the system has grown stronger despite the corporate and mutual fund scandals and reforms of the past five years.
So, let's answer the big question, "what should I do to plan for a bear market?" Not everyone has the same risk tolerance, so you have to pick a plan that fits your personality. Here are six possibilities to consider:
Strategy 1. Get out now and go to cash
Remember the 2000-2003 bear market, the massive 43% loss of market cap and a brutal tech crash. So once again, remember Warren Buffett's No. 1 rule of investing: Never lose money. Maybe use the cash to pay down mortgages, pay off debt.
Strategy 2. Ultra-conservative fixed-income option
Back in early 2000 a number of savvy investors saw high price-to-earnings ratios as a clear signal to bail out and hide out in bonds, bond funds and money markets. It worked. In the 2000-2003 bear, one of the portfolios I reviewed returned about 10% a year while the stock market was crashing -- a portfolio allocating a quarter each in short-bonds, intermediate bonds, inflation-protected securities and government savings bonds.
When to get back in stocks? Maybe never. Maybe "better safe than sorry." After all, the market is still below where it was six years ago!
Strategy 3. The entrepreneurial spirit
OK, so sitting on cash doesn't appeal to you and neither does a lot of dull, boring bonds. You want your money working. Take a cue from "The Millionaire Next Door." Turns out most millionaires don't become millionaires by investing in the stock market. They create equity one of three ways: Building businesses, developing real estate or as professionals. They're entrepreneurs, they work for themselves. See story on whether independent consulting is right for you.
The other 96% of Americans who don't become millionaires will retire with relatively small incomes from IRAs, 401(k)s and Social Security.
Strategy 4. 'Mad Money' stock trader
Hyperactive teenagers on speed are hard to take, especially if you have the temperament of a long-term buy-and-hold investor. But for some few investors, the "Mad Money," active stock-trading alternative may be best. Just remember, for successful traders, this is a full-time job. They study market psychology, and know the tricks of playing in a bear market as well as riding the bull.
Most of all, remember that the "more you trade the more you lose," because commissions, taxes and expenses will eat up much of your returns.
Strategy 5. Hot commodities trader
One of my readers tells me he put $10,000 in gold a couple years ago after reading my earlier columns on the two-decade negative returns of gold. I was his contrarian indicator. Now he claims his gold is worth $150,000. Hindsight is great, but I say the risks were high then, and still now.
Betting on commodities is a volatile, highly-leveraged crapshoot. Witness last week's sector sell-off triggering a flight to safety. But, if you've got the guts for high-risk volatility, and you're ready to make a full-time job out of being a commodities investor, review my earlier column. See previous Paul B. Farrell.
Otherwise, satisfy your anxiety by adding a very small percentage of commodities to your asset allocation.
Strategy 6. Relax and do nothing
Yes, this is the omega and alpha of all long-term investment strategies, the ultimate "Plan A." The one that works for most passive investors. If you already have a well-diversified portfolio, you're ready for a bear market (or a bull).
Back a few months ago I updated the performance of five "lazy portfolios" we've been tracking a while. For example, during the bear years of 2000-2002 the Coffeehouse Portfolio beat the S&P 500 by 15% each of the three years, while the Nasdaq dropped 80% and the stock market lost $8 trillion. The Coffeehouse Portfolio is proof you can win in both bull and bear markets, with no trading, no rebalancing, no tinkering with allocations. See previous Paul B. Farrell.
Strategy 6 is the best bet for almost all investors, especially passive investors. But like I said, you have to pick a plan that works for your risk tolerance and personality type. Maybe good fortune will smile on you, like with the guy who thinks I'm his contrarian indicator, who doesn't care if the playing field isn't level, who loves gambling and betting against the house at this casino. If that's your way as an investor, please, be my guest, pick one of the other five plans!
2006-09-19 08:36:12
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answered by dredude52 6
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