Cay you predict the outcomes of sanctions on North Korea?

Question

As you heard, Bush and Austrailia and Japan is pressing sactions on North Korea. Bush said the talk is failed.

Can you predict the outcomes of the sanctions?

Do you believe N. Korea will abanden its program, or will they be more aggressive? Or will they not take any action to buy some time?

If none of the above, what else can you think of?

Answer 1

What were the effects of decade-long sanctions on Iraq? The sanctions concentrated power in Saddam's hands because the *government* controlled the distribution of wealth. Guess who gets fed first?

The same is happening with North Korea. By isolating them, only the regime is strengthened; the general population starves. Do some research and see the effects of malnutrition on children in NK.

There's another reason the US is deliberately antagonizing NK: South Korea wants reunification. SK politicians have openly say that if reunification happens, all US military bases will be closed, and there's no way Washington wants to see that. The Japanese have talked about doing that for years, and if Yeouido threw out the Yanks, you can be Tokyo would too.

North Korea's military is a paper tiger. If they tried to invade the south, certain parts of their military might do serious damage, but not the entire military, and we've seen how pathetic and ineffective the North's missile program is. Much like the Chinese army wouldn't fire on its own in 1989, the North Koreans wouldn't kill their own people. The whole lot of them, north and south, believe in the "juche" ideology of putting themselves first *together*, and a civil war wouldn't be productive. Odds are, if the South offered Kim Jong Il and his cronies a peaceful way out without any trials or repercussions, they'd take it. Much of North Korea' posturing isn't about threatening the south, it's about getting a good deal in negotiations.

Add to that, Beijing would not help or support an NK invasion of the south, doing deals with the US is just too important. And Japan would prove just how valuable an ally they are to South Korea, despite SK's and Japan's long running fued. It's in Japan's best interests (both politically and economically) to help each other; Japan and South Korea are almost as dependent on each other's economy as Canada and the USA are.

Oh, and one last thing: let's not forget the US government's blame. Shrub whines endlessly about North Korea violating a 1994 agreement with the US, while conveniently ignoring US violation of the same agreement.

In the agreement, NK promised to give up nuclear technology and weapons. Kim Jong Il lived up to that agreement until 2003. The US, however, agreed in 1994 to normalize political relations with North Korea (they never did), to provide petroleum and electricity (they never did) and to meet in BILATERAL (two party) talks which Shrub has adamantly refused to do; Shrub won't meet outside of six party talks, even though as recently as 2004 Kim was willing to deal one on one. (Kim is sticking with six party talks because Russia, the PRC, SK and Japan are providing useful leverege against the US).

In other words, North Korea has been violating the agreement for three years (and in 2002, they never were in violation); the US started violating the agreement from day one and in twelve years has never lived up to it.

But then, the US never does live up to international agreements is signs, does it? Canada-US lumber, Geneva conventions, torture, refused to sign Kyoto or the landmine pact, millions of dollars in UN dues remain unpaid while the US demands the WHO teach "abstinence only", etc....



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Answer 2

What a f*cked up nation. Threatening people for financial and food aid when saying to all their subjects that there was a bumper harvest that year. Saying their leaders were born in the same manner as one of the gods. Killing entire families and all their neighbours for diasgreeing with anything AT ALL. These guys make Stalin look like Santa Claus. If they DO start something, it will be poor old South Korea who gets it.

Answer 3

didnt we put sanctions on japan before dec. 7 1941?

Answer 4

Wait just a minute ... Here it comes .... I'm looking to my crystal ball now.. wait.. wait .. you'll just have to wait just like the rest of us !! Haaa haa haa !!!

Answer 5

They will surely take a more aggressive stance.

Answer 6

It depends if China goes along with it or not.