What is the ave. market return in the year prior to a Presidential election ( ie, 2003, 1999, etc.)S&P, Dow?

Question

I would prefer a long term average, going back as many years as data is available, ie, most of 20th Century. Would accept a post-World War 2 answer.

Answer 1

Using the DJ averages from the begining of November to the begining of November for years when there is a presidential election (1932-2004) (e.g., November 1931-November 1932), I find the following:

Average one year return on DJIA

All Years: ............................. 6.319%
Democrats in office: ........... 10.979%
Republicans in Office ......... 1.142%

The numbers by party may be surprising -- but academic studies show that the stock market performs about 9% better per year when democrats are in office.