What would have happened if Gavrilo Princip had missed?

Answer 1

What a fantastic question. I wrote my Bachelor thesis on the origins of World War I and II. The balkans have always been tinderboxes and faultlines were already forming between Austria, Prussia and the old Hapsburg empire, but if Ferdinand had not been assasinated, who knows? Maybe millions wouldn't have died: 10 million soliders in WWI (including my great grandfather) and 60 million military and cililians in WWII, and millions more in Stalins putsches.

Answer 2

Gavrilo Princip (July 25, 1894 – April 28, 1918) was a Serb member of the Young Bosnia secret society who assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914. The event, known as the assassination in Sarajevo, prompted the Austrian action against Serbia that led to World War I.
Tensions between Austria and Serbia were strained, and even if Gavrilo had missed, Austria may still have moved against Serbia, or some other event would have triggered the first great war. If not, then there WW2 would have been WW1

Answer 3

There were growing tensions in Europe anyway. The continent was on the brink of a general war several times in 1908 (Austria annexates Bosnia), 1912-1913 (Balkan wars) and the Moroccan crises (1906 and 1911). There would have been a war anyhow. The Germans were feeling that is was the moment or never to become the dominant player (Russia was industrializing, France was beginning to catch up, Austria was declining rapidly), the French wanted Alsace back really bad, the Brits were afraid of the German Navy, the Russians, humiliated in 1905 and 1908 could not back down, the Austrians wanted to crush Serbia at any cost. All the ingredients were there for a huge war, and had Prinzip missed, something else would have starte the war.

Answer 4

Good question. I love playing What If with history. Thanks for asking.

Anyway, I presume that your question implies that an attempt is made. Given that Austria was looking for an excuse to attack Serbia, I think that the July Ultimatum would probably have been made pretty much as it had and the same chain of events would have occurred.

Where the interest lies would be in 1916, with the death of Emperor Franz Joseph. A living Franz Ferdinand would have ascended to the thrones of Austria and Hungary instead of Karl I. The question then becomes how Franz Ferdinand would have ruled differently from Karl.

Given that more investment into grooming Franz Ferdinand for the thrones was made, Austria-Hungary might have had a shrewder monarch, perhaps one that would have been more able to contain the nationalist unrest occurring with the Empire. Thus, it is possible that the Dual Monarchy might have survived World War I somewhat in tact. Given that, the history of Europe would have been quite different, and an Anschluss with Nazi Germany might have been impossible if an heterogeneous Hapsburg Empire still existed.

Of course, this is all speculation, but then again, that's normal.

Answer 5

I have no doubt that World War I would still have happened - it had been predicted since at least 1870, and the system of alliances in Europe, and the nationalism that was growing in the Balkans, meant that it was never going to be avoided.

Something else would have sparked off the conflict. Maybe a few months later, maybe a few years later; but the war was going to start.

Answer 6

There would have been another "cause" of World War One.

The arms race between Germany and the UK and the aggressive economic intentions of Germany toward the east, especially to tap into the oil reserves in the Middle East [Iraq] made it mandatory that the other great powers keep Germany under control.

Answer 7

I think it was destiny that he seems to have been a crack shot, so that the event had to happen. There would probably have been another event orchestrated to give the excuse to start the Great War.

Answer 8

Some other fool would have stepped in to ensure the agenda was carried out.

Answer 9

It would only have delayed war. The rest of the jigsaw was in place.

Answer 10

He did - he wasn't very skilled and it was on his third try that he finally hit the Archduke.