How low will the housing market go in California?

Question

Since it is a buyers market
and how long will it last being a buyers market?
Of course this is only ones opinion.

Answer 1

Much of this will be decided on September 25th with a congressional vote. ( I detail this further in my reply) Otherwise, appreciation will average between 4-5% in 2007.


With the falling demand and increased supply, home prices still realized slight appreciation though it was less than 1 percent, where over the past few years homes were appreciating at double-digit rates. “While recent developments raise concern, it is believed that we should still have an appreciation of 4-5% in 2007. One-third of the country (by population) is still seeing rising home prices, including Alaska, New Mexico, Vermont and many states in the South, excluding Florida. States that experienced the greatest increases in home prices in recent years are experiencing significantly lower sales, such as Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada and Virginia.

Contrary to many reports, there is not a ‘national housing bubble. We were seeing home prices and mortgage debt servicing cost-to-income ratios increase to unhealthy levels in some housing markets, which precipitate an adjustment. Also contributing to the cooling housing market is an increase in mortgage rates of nearly one point, speculative investors pulling back and first-time buyers being priced out of the market.

Adjustments to the housing market are not unique and can often times be necessary. In addition to the rapid appreciation of years past, the rise in mortgage rates affects a homebuyer’s ability to finance and purchase a home. Pressure is being felt in the housing market due to rising mortgage rates. With rising interest rates, homebuyers have become exhausted financially which explains why sales have tumbled in higher-priced regions of the country.

The actual wild card which none of my esteemed colleagues mentioned was an upcoming vote in Congress which could cause interest rates to climb again, and then would cause the housing market true concerns.

The US continues to have a hearty appetite for foreign goods...the US Balance of Trade for July scored another record trade deficit, this time ballooning by 5% to -$68.0 billion and above expectations of -$65.4 billion. The previous monthly deficit record was -$66.3 billion set last January. The trade imbalance between the US and China continues to grow with a -$19.6 billion gap in July compared to July 2005’s gap of -$17.6 billion.

Regarding the trade deficit with China, there is an important Congressional vote coming on Sept 25th that could impact mortgage rates. In order to help close the trade gap with China, Congress will decide whether to impose a 27.5% tariff on Chinese imports. Why is Congress voting to impose such a tariff? Because China has not allowed their currency, the Yuan, to float higher against the US Dollar. The present agreement with the US calls for China to allow their currency to float up 10% against the US Dollar. China has only allowed a 3.8% move. Congress is not happy about this because it keeps Chinese goods very inexpensive in comparison to US goods, which hurts corporations and employment in the US.

How does China manipulate their currency to keep it weak against the Dollar? By purchasing massive quantities of Dollar denominated Bonds...including Mortgage Bonds. The more Bonds they buy, the stronger our Dollar...and in relation, the weaker their Yuan. So the threat of this upcoming vote to impose this large tariff on Chinese goods might just prompt them to allow their currency to strengthen or float higher against the Dollar, in order to avoid such a huge tariff being imposed. What does this all mean to us? It means that the Chinese may back off on their massive Bond purchases...and anytime a huge buyer steps back from the table, prices will generally decline. And as we know, when Bond prices decline, home loan rates go up. Rates have been held low partly due to the large extent of foreign purchasing of Bonds, so this is an important story to watch in the coming weeks - we'll be watching closely to see what the Chinese do in advance of the vote.


Today, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen speaks on the economy, and this is the same “Yellin'” Yellen who voiced some concerns over inflation last week and created a bit of a reaction in the financial markets. Any further comments today about inflation by Yellen could catch the attention of Traders and create a reaction.

Technically, Mortgage Bonds are continuing on the "bumper bowling" path between a solid layer of dual support provided by both the 25-day and 200-day Moving Averages at $99.89 and $99.86 respectively and overhead resistance at $100.19. Bond prices will likely stay trapped between the "bumpers" until a strong market-moving catalyst comes along to propel prices out of this range.

More than likely, this is one of the largest and most important financial transactions you will ever make. You might do this only four or five times in your entire life. but we do this every single day. It's your home and your future. It's our profession and our passion. We're ready to work for your best interest.

Answer 2

Things are still falling somewhat in San Diego, and we're on the bleeding edge of this thing. On the other hand, there is clearly support for prices in general not too much further down. In San Diego, the sellers are finally seeing reality. Further north, in LA and the Bay area, denial is still in full force.

We're a little more than twenty percent below peak prices now. I'd be very surprised if it went over thirty.

As to how long it'll last, I'm going to say Spring 2008 is most likely when it'll start to reach buyer/seller equilibrium, but it could be as early as January 2007. If the buyer's market goes past Spring 2009, I will be astonished. Ironically, the further down it goes, I believe the sooner and faster it will recover.

Answer 3

I think most markets are shifting from the sellers markets in the past 5 years to equillibrium rather than actual buyer's markets. It has mostly to this point been an increase in the time on the market rather than an actual reduction of sale prices.

At least that is what we are seeing on the East Coast.

Answer 4

20 to 30% is the estimate.

How to value a property during market downturn?

Housing market continues to slump. Now we can calculate true value of a property easily. As price decline, we don't need to guess and factor in the potential price appreciation while calculating home value. Without the guesswork, figures are more accurate.

Let's use following example:

Today, a typical 15 years old, two bedrooms condo/townhouse is priced around $500,000 and $550,000 in Sunnyvale, California. Rent for similar condo/townhouse is $2000/month.

If you are a home owner, $2,000/month in rent means $20,000 a year in profit ($24,000 per year in rent, minus $4,000 maintenance costs). A $20,000 income is equilevant of owning $400,000 bonds or CDs, because current yield of 30 Years U.S. treasuries are 5% (5% of $400,000 is $20,000). Bank CDs have similiar yields.

In our example, the two bedrooms condo/townhouse is 20% to 25% overpriced. They should be priced at $400,000.

It is interesting to note that if we redo the calculation from buyer's perspective instead of seller's perspective, the figures are even more shocking.

Mortgage payment consists of two parts: mortgage interests and mortgage principal. The interests portion is similar to rent. If you pay interest, it disappears and doesn't add equity to the property. To fully simulate characteristics of renting, we assume buyer will apply for a zero down, interest-only loan.

It turns out that rent of $2000/month is equivelant to mortgage payment of a $340,000 loan at 7.0% APR. And comparing $340,000 loan to $500,000 or $550,000 price tag, from buyer's view, the two bedrooms condo/townhouse is 30% to 35% overpriced.

One may ask, why is there a discrepancy between two perspectives of the buyer and owner?

The discrepancy is a result of 2% differences in interest rate that buyer borrow comparing to yields of bonds and CDs that owners would get. We understand that buyer would always pay more. That is the premium of buying to own. However, looking from home owner's perspective, current housing market is probably 20% to 25% overpriced. We recommand investors to wait for a better entry point.

Answer 5

The market in Los Angeles isn't exactly going any lower. It just isn't going a lot higher. Its flattening out. New housing prices are dropping a bit in the inland empire though. It all depends on the interest rates. If they keep going up, the prices may drop a few percent, but they aren't going to go into the toilet. There is still a lot of demand in Southern California.

Answer 6

inhabitants will proceed to outstrip housing for a minimum of the subsequent 15 years. it extremely is envisioned that our inhabitants will boost from the present 35 million, it relatively is 35,000,000 to fifty a million in 2015. Low income domicile would be non-existent. i do no longer suspect average or much less costly housing will pass down in any respect. extreme priced housing, over $1million will pass flat and perhaps pass down 5 to 10%, yet I doubt it relatively is going to pass decrease.