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...even if it can be proven that - at gambling games such as coin tossing - doubling if you lose will not increase your expectation to gain a profit in the long-run?

2006-09-13 10:42:44 · 1 answers · asked by Anonymous in Social Science Economics

1 answers

I'd say their use is so widespread because it simplifies models.
A martingale process, by being based solely on expected values, relieves valuation models of the necessity of taking into account individual risk preferences.


(hmmm... assuming a martingale process, are you sure you would want to double if you lose? If you expect the current result also for the future?
I suppose you mean that if you toss the coin often enough you would end up with about a 50/50 head/tail result, and that is the reasoning behind doubling if you lose? But just tossing twice wouldn't be enough, I mean even if you were to arrive at a 50/50 result by tossing often enough, there is no guarantee a head will be followed by a tail and vice versa. ...
In other words I'm not convinced that strategy of doubling if you lose is connected to martingales at all...?)

2006-09-13 11:26:26 · answer #1 · answered by s 4 · 0 0

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