housing market in Northern CA?

Question

What does everyone think about the housing market in San Francisco in few years time?
It seems slow right now but I'm wondering if the market is heading for an upward/downward trend in few years
thanks:)

Answer 1

Stocks are more liquid. And it takes a year or two to go through a correction. Housing market is less liquid. So, it is very possible that this downturn just started.

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How to value a property during market downturn?

Housing market continues to slump. Now we can calculate true value of a property easily. As price decline, we don't need to guess and factor in the potential price appreciation while calculating home value. Without the guesswork, figures are more accurate.

Let's use following example:

Today, a typical 15 years old, two bedrooms condo/townhouse is priced around $500,000 and $550,000 in Sunnyvale, California. Rent for similar condo/townhouse is $2000/month.

If you are a home owner, $2,000/month in rent means $20,000 a year in profit ($24,000 per year in rent, minus $4,000 maintenance costs). A $20,000 income is equilevant of owning $400,000 bonds or CDs, because current yield of 30 Years U.S. treasuries are 5% (5% of $400,000 is $20,000). Bank CDs have similiar yields.

In our example, the two bedrooms condo/townhouse is 20% to 25% overpriced. They should be priced at $400,000.

It is interesting to note that if we redo the calculation from buyer's perspective instead of seller's perspective, the figures are even more shocking.

Mortgage payment consists of two parts: mortgage interests and mortgage principal. The interests portion is similar to rent. If you pay interest, it disappears and doesn't add equity to the property. To fully simulate characteristics of renting, we assume buyer will apply for a zero down, interest-only loan.

It turns out that rent of $2000/month is equivelant to mortgage payment of a $340,000 loan at 7.0% APR. And comparing $340,000 loan to $500,000 or $550,000 price tag, from buyer's view, the two bedrooms condo/townhouse is 30% to 35% overpriced.

One may ask, why is there a discrepancy between two perspectives of the buyer and owner?

The discrepancy is a result of 2% differences in interest rate that buyer borrow comparing to yields of bonds and CDs that owners would get. We understand that buyer would always pay more. That is the premium of buying to own. However, looking from home owner's perspective, current housing market is probably 20% to 25% overpriced. We recommand investors to wait for a better entry point.

Answer 2

i think it will stay stable.