Are political opinion polls as useless for predicting the outcome of an election as I thibk they are?

Question

Could you explain why they are or are not useless from your point of view?

Answer 1

Yes, they're totally useless. I think that's because the poll ends up saying what the polling company wants it to say.

Did you notice how the exit polling in the 200 and 2004 elections was out of whack? It turns out that the polling company over-sampled certain demographics to get the result it was cheering for.

Answer 2

Yes, they are useless.

When I enter into a poll, the first thing I look at is the number of people polled.

For example, MSNBC had a headline of "Bush Polled to be the Worst President in History by Americans".

I went in, read the article and then began looking for poll information. I found it and it stated that the results came from asking 1572 people if Bush was the worst President. I'm no mathmatician but 1500 people polled out of nearly 300 million is hardly an accurate poll.

Organizations would have to poll 3/4 of the population to even come close to an accurate poll.

Answer 3

Yes, they're pretty useless. An opinion poll is simply a "snapshot" of a portion of the electorate on that particular day, and people's opinions can change constantly, especially as they receive new information. Further, you have no way of knowing for sure that the sample you've chosen accurately represents the entire region you're trying to measure. As we saw in the 2004 election, even exit polls, which are taken right after the person votes, can get it wrong.

Answer 4

political opinion polls.... The polls can find out what people are thinking about important public questions. According to their champions, the polls are fact-finding devices which help to keep the public well informed. The polls can keep the public in touch with important shifts in public opinion, it is said, and therefore in the shifts of forces which decide where the political, economic, and social power in this country lies.

Critics, however, point out that polling, in addition to being restricted by the small size of the sample, is subject to the bias of interviewers and those who analyze the data, and that in some instances also the questions may not be well or carefully phrased. Some discount in the reliability of opinion surveys must therefore be made.

Despite the skepticism of polling practices voiced by some sociologists and economists, polls are being used more and more to gather facts and also opinions. The Bureau of the Census uses the sampling method, for example, to gather currently factual information about the labor supply in the United States. Other organizations try to find out the opinions of people on any of the day’s significant issues.

Answer 5

Aside from the fact that an election is a kind of opinion poll - the other sort of opinion poll is useful - but skewed.

When someone conducts a poll, the most likely people to answer are those holding extreme views - the moderates aren't as likely to answer. That may also hold true for elections - the extremists get out & vote & we get.......a polarised government.

That's why I'm a Radical Moderate Invependet Voter - if you feel apathetic about voting, because their equally contemptible - you are exactly the person who should vote.

Answer 6

Skewed or loaded questions,

events change opinions,

they show how penty politicans are

its like a game political poll leading,

because they have no direct leadership and they follow the pols and the polls can be inaccurate or misleading in their questions.

People are stupid to follow th polls.

Plus polling on election day deters voters and that means some do not show up and can effect the outcome of that election. It ought to be illegal to poll on election day like standing x number of feet away from the polling boothes.

Answer 7

I believe you as much as a factor yet you're unlikely far sufficient. what's blocking off you is a naive faith interior the integrity of the vote casting technique, a gadget that throughout many states and maximum great cities has been profoundly corrupt for hundreds of years. the upward push of "digital vote casting" has made this difficulty worse with the help of an order of cost. If a collection of sociopaths replaced into in a position to income administration of the two polling businesses and vote casting gadget businesses, then the synergy they might set up could be outstanding. they might use controlled polls to create a phantasm of familiar help for a candidate after which use hacked vote casting machines to place him over the best. i've got faith this is going on precise now with this meant rebound of George Bush's approval score. till now some Republican actual believer calls me a "left-wing moonbat", enable me say that i'm between the least liberal people you're ever going to fulfill. various conservatives (actual conservatives besides) loathe Bush and his neocon puppetmasters, and for extremely stable reason....

Answer 8

That really depends on the poll sample population. Unless you poll only the likely voters, you won't even be close. Then you have to get a good enough of a cross section of the likely voters to reflect their political affiliation among the populace. And you still have enough of an error margin that anything close is indeterminable.

That's the nature of polls. That's why I don't pay much attention to them.

Answer 9

There's a lot of different sources of polling, and a LOT of pollsters who either lean in one direction or the other.

There's also "push polling" and phone jamming.

Talking Points Memo (TPM) keeps a great up-to-date list of politicians who have been charged with various crimes and who have either served their time.. or like Jack Abramoff, are about ready to head to jail. It's called the "Grand Old Docket" >

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/grandolddocket.php

There have been people arrested for "harrassing voters via phone calls" that are listed on that TPM list (Chuck McGee, Allen Raymond & James Tobin, with the GOP were charged)

I don't put a lot of stake in political polls.. even the big ones like Gallup are often completely wrong.

..

Answer 10

Follow the money. If they were not useful, politicians and parties would not spend tons of money on polls. EXCEPTION - "push polls" - polls, the intention of which is not to gather information but to confuse the stupid - i.e., would you be more likely or less likely to vote for Clinton if he murdered.... Whenever a politician says they don't believe in polls, it is usuallly because they are losing and don't want their base to be discouraged. Also, if you didn't believe in polls why would you spend thousands or millions of dollars on them?