How much longer do you think the Earth has before it gets a taste of deep impact?

Question

We've been spared by the skin of our teeth so many times, Schwassman-Wachmann 3 was one of the last NEO's that broke apart and missed us by a tenacious bit. We are not exempt from a hit, and we are fool to think it. History speaks of comet/asteroid impacts since prehistoric times. When do you think we will catch the next one? One that everyone on Earth will be affected by, in some way?

Answer 1

As soon as Pluto gets word it is no longer a planet! LOL

I guess 103 years from next Friday

Answer 2

The fossil record indicates that global mass-extinction-sized impacts are, on average, tens to hundreds of millions of years apart---depending on how much extinction you want. Clearly there haven't been any "wipe out all life"-sized events in the past few billion years. The event that made the moon was one such, 4.5 billion years ago, but the Solar System has settled down considerably since then, and repetition is unlikely. Somewhat smaller events, that merely trash a continent, are several million years apart, although these events become hard to distinguish from really big volcanic eruptions. It is true that the Tunguska event was only a hundred years ago, but on the other hand there are no remnants of previous similar events in the past few thousand years at least.

How much anxiety should you have about this? Well, the odds of you, a single individual, being killed by an impact from space are about the same as the odds of you being killed by a commercial airliner crash---pretty small, but not entirely negligable. If an event does get you, however, it will probably get a lot of other people at the same time, since the biggest impact disasters have many more casualties than the biggest airplane disasters.

Answer 3

Not too sure about a Deep Impact sort of event, but I think there will be another Tunguska type event within the next 100 years. That would be bad enough if it occurs over a heavily populated region.

Answer 4

It makes little difference, as there is little we can do about it, except migrate to a planet without asteroid impacts. Since said planet has yet to be discovered, if it exists at all, and the ships needed to get there have yet to be built, it is not likely to happen even in your grandchildrens' lifetimes. . . .and I had hoped it would happen in mine....

The event you are worrying about is more likely to be caused by a comet than a NEO.

Answer 5

My husband requested me to marry him 3 months after we began formally courting. We were friends before that. We had a 365 days lengthy engagement and could be married 7 years next month. i do no longer imagine that aspect has something to do with how lengthy your marriage will very last. My grandparents eloped after surely understanding one yet another a lot less then 3 months. they have been married fifty one years and are the finest of friends.

Answer 6

It has happened before at least a couple times, and I will happen again at least a couple times. On the timescale of humans, namely us, the odds are pretty remote. By remote I mean don't worry about it! If it did happen, at least we'd all go together. And just think what may evolve after we are gone. Maybe they will know how long the earth has before it gets a taste of deep impact.

Answer 7

We're about due. Expect one the size of the (Barringer) Meteor Crater, Arizona, within the next 25,000 years. Within the next 60 million years, expect one as big as the one that exterminated the dinosaurs. Better check and make sure you're caught up on your insurance coverage.

Answer 8

There has been alot of speculation on the year 2012. The Mayans (who were way ahead of their time in astrology and physics) believed the year 2006. Considering we still have 4 months left in '06 we should probably keep our fingers crossed, because we are definitely living on borrowed time.

Answer 9

Chances are very good that we will have the ability to detect and change the orbit of a threatening body in space by the time one is actually set to hit us.

Answer 10

We're more likely to destroy ourselves first. But I'd bet that something newsworthy crashes into us in the next 50 years. But not an extinctor, that might be more like 50,000 years.