tropical storm ernesto?????

Question

I am in melbourne, florida and do not see any storm coming. its raining but thats it. i hate watching the news cuz they scare you so can anybody tell me what time it is coming and are we still going to expect 50 moh winds??

I hate florida cuz of the hurricanes and then the power out, etc. i moved down here cuz of my family but i would much rather be back in boston with a blizzrd than a hrricane in florida

they cancelled school and it is hardly raining...hellllooooooo...hire better forecasters!!!

Answer 1

I am in Winter Park, and it is not even raining!!! My kids are out of school, and I had to miss a day of work! kinda frustrating. But this is not the first time the state has overreacted. But I guess that overreaction is better then underreaction, huh?

Answer 2

Yes, most of the stations in Florida are reporting no more than 10-20 knot winds. MLB airport along the coast (with winds off the ocean) is up to 12 knots the past hour. I think they'll become a little stronger as the Low center nears your region, but (over land) Ernesto has been downgraded to a tropical depression as of 11 AM:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/301446.shtml

SW Florida is getting quite a bit of rain.

The order of the day is always better to be safe than sorry - seems as though they'd prefer to overestimate the strength of a storm 5 times than underestimate it once. If you don't do that, some people will pick at the one forecast you underestimated - the one storm among many you missed - and constantly remind you of it. Yet things like this can be done time and time again, and there is no problem. Thus the meteorological community in general tends to approve of cautious forecasts and frown upon bold ones.

Tropical storms and hurricanes aint what they used to be (though to some extent never were - if that makes any sense - can be embellished with time also). Read more of those discussions that I linked to or the recent archives, and you'll see how they are hitting storm with wind measurements from airports, data buoys, recon flights, and doppler radars thru large layers of the atmosphere. If there is a wind of 39 or 64 knots anywhere in there, they will probably find it - yet most spots won't get anything close as the storm passes by. This is only from a limited look at tropical cyclone data, but I am guessing a storm now classified the same as one 20-30 years ago has winds about 10-15% weaker - thus we'll see more borderline tropical storms and hurricanes being classified as such.

Additional comment: The 12 knot winds mentioned above and the 39 & 64 knot wind criteria for tropical storms and hurricanes refer to sustained winds. During the past hour (it is now near 4 PM and I originally posted before 12 PM), MLB reported a sustained wind of 16 knots and a peak wind (gust) of 31 knots - yet not much different that they typically get with a thunderstorm.

Answer 3

First of all sweety,you cant predict mother nature. I am in Titusville it is raining a bit, but the storm is not even here yet. We are getting the bands of the storm right now. It you hate it here so much, go back up north. I hate when people constantly complain about where they live and let they continue to stay here. Where is the logic?If you hate Florida, get yourself into your car and drive.Today would be perfect, after all, like you said the weather is fine..

Answer 4

Nothing's happening. I'm in Miami, and there's no school for two days even if all we get is 40 mph winds. Oh well, I didn't want school to begin anyways. I actually like hurricanes. Even if we have no power, I like the whole feeling of putting up shutters, using candles and flashlights, grilling food, and not using as many electric things like the computer that I'm addicted to. lol Oh also watching the news and keeping up to date. But I was let down this time. Everybody prepares for nothing. Gosh...

Answer 5

be glad that is turned out not to be anything. i astill rather live in a state where the only thing i have to worry about are hurricanes, where u still have time to put some plan in motion and get out of harms way.
poor other people who haev to deal with tornadoes, earthquakes, hairl storms, snow storms, you have minimum to no time to get to a safe place.

Answer 6

Would you rather have a quieter-than-normal storm or something like Katrina?

Would you rather have a roof over your head or stand ON your roof waiting to be rescued from 25 foot flood waters?

Did you stop complaining yet?

Answer 7

189
WTNT35 KNHC 301507
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 24...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...CORRECTED RAINFALL STATEMENT...

...ERNESTO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH ON THE WEST COAST INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD
AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR
ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
AND ABOUT 115 MILES...190 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SARASOTA FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE ERNESTO IS OVER LAND
BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...26.4 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Answer 8

i'm in south carolina they say we are soppsed to get the worst of it.i don't care but i am going to myrtle beach for labor day wich is my birthday.bummer