iS IT TRUE THAT THERE IS GOING TO BE A HURRICANE AT NEW YORK NEXT MONTH?

Question

i HAVE A LOT OF RELATIVES THAT LIVE IN NEW YORK AND I WOULD LIKE 2 KNOW ANY INFORMATION ABOUT THIS. SO IF U COULD PLZ TELL ME ANYTHING ABOUT THIS AND LEAVE ANY LINKS 2 WEBSITES THAT SAY INFORMATION ABOUT THIS.

Answer 1

Our weather prediction capabilites are not that good yet. You can always check the weather at weather.com, yahoo weather or watch the weather channel on tv.

Answer 2

Watch the Caps Lock usage please...

First you need to understand where science has gotten us; what we can and cannot do.

We can, within reason, predict individual tropical cyclones (once they've formed) out to about 5 days. Forecasting an individual storm's intensity is MUCH more difficult than getting the actual track right. (1)

We can also somewhat accurately predict how active next season will be, using statistical methods of realtime conditions. Dr. Gray & his team at Colorado State University have been doing this and refining their techniques since 1984. (2)

Science has not gotten to the point yet where we can say, "Next month there'll be a hurricane hitting New York City". To do this, we'd have to be able to be able to get the overall mid-latitude weather pattern correct a month out--of which we can't really do past 7-10 days. Then we'd also have to be able to correctly predict the tropical conditions that would be in place that would initially form the tropical cyclone. We have less skill at that.

Where does this come from? AccuWeather (3) & Joe Bastardi (4). AccuWeather is a private weather company that wants to take over alot of the forecasting duties from the NWS/NOAA (federal government) and often over-hypes situations in order to gain public attention. This plays hand-in-hand to the style of Joe Bastardi (4). Joe Bastardi is a very knowledgable meteorologist, but he tends to over-hype situations and follows an all-or-nothing approach to forecasting (as explained by Wikipedia).

From what I've seen of his rationale behind the forecast (3), he's made points that hurricanes have made landfall there before (back in the 30s/40s/50s), so it's not impossible to have one hit there again. He also says we're back in the weather pattern of the 30s/40s/50s right now, so we could easily see a repeat of those events.

Your relatives shouldn't worry that much, but keeping in mind that hurricanes have hit there before, they should have a hurricane plan. If they have a plan, they'll have perhaps a 3-5 days to execute that plan before the hurricane will affect them.

But you need to realize that there's no way someone can accurately (8-9 times out of 10 similar situations) predict that a hurricane will be in a specific spot one month from now. The professionals right now are doing good if they are closer than 200 miles in 3 days (1).

Answer 3

It's merely impossible for a Hurricane to hit New York, although like what The Weather Channel said, "It Could Happen Tomorrow".

Answer 4

yano i dont think science has gotten that far to predict a hurricane that will occur in a month. if youre really that worried, j/watch the weather channel religiously and wait to see what they have to say.

Answer 5

Well, the current hurricane is named Ernesto and that sounds Puerto Rican to me. So, yes it's probably headed there to get on the welfare tit with the rest of them.

Answer 6

Yes, it's true. And the sky is falling. Run for your lives. There's no place like home, there's no place like home.