A salesperson has two leads on a certain day. What is the probability that the salesperson will sell?

Question

(i) both? (ii) exactly one policy: (iii) at least one policy?

The probability that a life insurance salesperson following up a magazine lead will make a sale is 30%.

Answer 1

Events like these are not necessarilly independent.

However, let's assume that they are.

Sell both (.3)(.3) or .09.

Sell neither (.7)(.7) or .49.

Sell 1. 1 - .09 - .49 or .42.

Sell 1 or more. .09+.42 or .51

Now, do the rest of you HW on your own.

Answer 2

In dealing with human action, we really can't say that there is a probability in such instances. We can discuss statistics only in the sense that in the past, the salesperson averaged 30%. But each individual sales call is a non-repeatable event. For a non-repeatable event, there is no probability that can be attached.

So suppose we look past that, and consider some sort of random-number generation issue, thereby making this repeatable. There remain other questions, e.g., are these independent events? The answer depends on whether they are independent.

For example, suppose that the two leads are brothers, and the younger one always follows the older one's lead. In that case, the chance of exactly one sale is 0%, because there will always be either 2 sales or no sales. The chance of 2 sales would be 30%.

Answer 3

It does depend on how many people the salesperson talks to. The averages in sales is 1 in 3, or 3 in 10. That's where that statistic is coming from. So if the salesperson talks to 10 people the chances of him selling both are 30% and with each person after that he talks to the chances increasingly improve.

Answer 4

out of that 30%, 50% can sell and 50% cannot sell. this answer implies to all 3 conditions ( i, ii & iii). this is cause, no matter how hard u try, all u can do is try hard cause, there is a saying, DO YOUR BEST AND GOD WILL DO THE REST! all u can do is the best u can do. and if the percentage of the chances u get to sell to not being able to sell is half. take it as 1 cake and there is 2 people. how u split it up? cut into half...

Answer 5

Depends on the individual sales person's closing ratio. If the closing ratio is 50%, then one sale will be achieved. However, 50% is rather high for most. 20% of sales people close 80% of sales. The average is more likely to be 1 in 5. Good luck, the more you "practice" your trade, the more proficient you become. Peace and Good Luck.

Answer 6

I love this question because I was once an insurance salesmen. IF it was me.....zero!
I was terrible at that job. My boss at the time told me to try digging ditches! His furor and lack of compassion drove me to a college education, MBA! ta da!

Answer 7

That depends on his ability to close the sale!

Answer 8

Was wondering the same thing

Answer 9

He may sell both or he may sell one of the two or he may sell none so the probability is 33.33%( that he will sell)

Answer 10

I don't think anyone can truly tell you