The chance of Apophis hitting earth is 1 in 5,560, do we need to start worrying?

Question

I've heard that nukes would only break up the asteroid into smaller pieces, but not eliminate the threat, we need something else to nudge it off course.

The projected date of impace is 2036....only thirty years away.

Impact calculations:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html

ThiknAboutIt, i like your probabilities, but they're only individual problems (at least the avoidable ones)...the asteroids are extinction level events which we MAY be able to avert.

The causes of one death are OK...that's reality, but i'm talking billions dying, that's what i'm worried about.

Answer 1

Your lifetime odds of dying as a consequence of an asteroid or meteor impact are closer to 1 in 200,000, however. Better to eat well, exercise, wear your seat-belt & have some fun!



Cause of Death Lifetime Odds
Heart Disease
1-in-5

Cancer
1-in-7

Stroke
1-in-23

Accidental Injury
1-in-36

Motor Vehicle Accident*
1-in-100

Intentional Self-harm (suicide)
1-in-121

Falling Down
1-in-246

Assault by Firearm
1-in-325

Fire or Smoke
1-in-1,116

Natural Forces (heat, cold, storms, quakes, etc.)
1-in-3,357

Electrocution*
1-in-5,000

Drowning
1-in-8,942

Air Travel Accident*
1-in-20,000

Flood* (included also in Natural Forces above)
1-in-30,000

Legal Execution
1-in-58,618

Tornado* (included also in Natural Forces above)
1-in-60,000

Lightning Strike (included also in Natural Forces above)
1-in-83,930

Snake, Bee or other Venomous Bite or Sting*
1-in-100,000

Earthquake (included also in Natural Forces above)
1-in-131,890

Dog Attack
1-in-147,717

Asteroid Impact*
1-in-200,000**

Tsunami* 1-in-500,000
Fireworks Discharge
1-in-615,488

Answer 2

Uhm ... I see nothing on that page you link that gives the odds at 1 in 5,560, or anything about an anticipated impact in 2036. The impact probablity listed is 2.3e-5, which is 1 in 43,000. That's not much better than your odds of dying by legal executuion.

Seriously ... get your facts straight (or at least provide a better source) before posting things that alarm some people.

Answer 3

Hm. I don't think there's a need to start worrying - you're much more likely to get in a few car accidents between now and then. But it's definitely a good time to start doing something about it.

And, apparently, some folks at NASA have just that in mind, and even for this particular asteroid. If we start soon, it's quit possible to use a gravitational tug to pull its orbit away from earth, thus improving our odds.
You can read a bit about it here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/space/article/0,,1638999,00.html

Answer 4

I would not worry about Apophis, I would worry about the ones they have not found. Every year I hear about 2 or 3 that were "discovered" shortly after they missed Earth.

I have some ideas on how to divert asteroids that I intend to write up, but early detection is the key, it will take years of planning in advance.

Answer 5

No, it's not worth worrying about, but it does serve as a valuable excercise to put into perspective some of the very unlikely things that the media seem to love to get us so stirred up about.