If the South had won the Civil War, would it have eventually split up itself?

Question

Example: The re-establishment of the Republic of Texas

Answer 1

Actually, the South would not have stayed together, even though the Confederate Constitution specifically stated that secession was not possible. By 1864, South Carolina (which got everyone into this mess in the first place!) had already stated that they felt the Confederate central government was too dictatorial and that it wanted to secede. Georgia and North Carolina had already stopped sending troops and supplies to the Southern field armies before Sherman even arrived.

Answer 2

Much of the answer rests in what kind of government that the Confederacy would have emerge, and this depends on how a Southern victory would have occurred.

Perhaps we assume that the South gets lucky after first Manassas, makes a push towards Washington, and caused the Union government to recognise their independence very early on. This probably would have created a loose Confederacy that gave the states free reign in economic policy but perhaps left foreign policy to Richmond. Since the South was not homogeneous, there might come a point where the Cotton states of the deep South and the border states would clash over economics. A peaceful division of the Confederacy might be possible.

Say that Lee's march north in 1862 wasn't stopped at Sharpsburg (Turtledove's divergence point for his novels). Having seen a year of bloody warfare but not being devastated economically, the Conderacy might have been more unified. However, since the South's victory might be owed to British intervention, the South might have wound up a de facto dominion within the British Empire, depending on how much reliance the Confederacy would have on British manufactured goods. It would likely relegate the South into a second-class power.

Say that Lee's 1863 northern push goes beyond Gettysburg. While it is harder to imagine a total Southern victory at this point, a partial one might have occurred. The big factor in this case is the success of the Union out west. Texas would have been cut off from the rest of the Confederacy, and should the war have ended here, Texas might have gone it alone. The rest of the Confederacy (the east) would have been drained of resources and would be susceptible to foreign influence going beyond Britain.

Under all of these scenarios, a single unified national government would have likely not formed. With that in mind, it would probably be a matter of time before internal strife would cleave the Confederacy into different parts.

Answer 3

~Given it's ineptitude non-argrarian technology, its lack of an industrial base and its reliance on the North and Europe for manufactured goods, each state, starting with Virginia, would have petitioned for re-entry into the Union within 25 years. About the same amount of time it would have taken for most people in the south to realize that slavery was economically unsound and for abolition to occur of its own accord. Also, threat of invasion by Britain, France or whoever controlled Mexico at the time would have made the South realize that there was protection in numbers. Meanwhile, New London, New York and Philadelphia would have supplanted Norfolk/Newport News as the pre-eminent shipbuilding centers and the Southern military bases would not have been built. The southern states had neither the money nor manpower to build and man them. The north would have continued the westward expansion. Alone, the south would have become a third world nation. State's rights would have seemed less important to an impoverished, starving nation.

Answer 4

With the exception of texas the south would have stayed together. The northern US would have been a seperate country because the south didn"t want them anyway.

Answer 5

if the south had won i dont think anything would have changed really (other then slavery). it wouldnt have split up itself at all. that would be most not good 4 it in many ways. they were fighting to become their own independent nation y would they then go and split them selves?

and even if they had won and split into their own country then latter the north or the south would have wanted to join again. dont you think?

Answer 6

Very likely, particularly if the Confederate States of America had taken its states' rights doctrine to the logical extreme. But human beings aren't logical.