I'm having an outdoor party on Sept 2nd. The weather calls for thunderstorms with a 60% chance.
2006-08-24 07:21:22 · 14 answers · asked by Sasha 1 in Science & Mathematics ➔ Weather
As Ivory James stated, weather forecasts nowadays are much more accurate than people give them credit for. Forecasts within 3 days are VERY accurate. However, once you get past 5 days and into 7 or 10 days, accuracy goes down quite a bit. Current day forecasting tools simply aren't advanced enough at the moment to deal with weather forecasts out that far in any kind of consistent or accurate way. Your best bet is to start looking at the forecast 5 days out, and really start focusing on it 3 days out.
On the other hand, you can also make sure you're prepared. Are you in an area where there are very often thunderstorms in the afternoons? If so, when you combine this with the 10-day forecast, you should at least have a backup plan for your outdoor party, so you can make sure your guests don't get drenched.
2006-08-24 07:53:07 · answer #1 · answered by Texan 2 · 2⤊ 0⤋
UALog has given you a very good answer. My own experience is that the European weather forecasts are usually very accurate when the time frame is the next 24 hours. After that the accuracy remorselessly slips away. There is also the problem of scale - the smaller the area your forecast covers, the better your chance of getting it right. Forecasting on a global scale happens, but it is in the most general of terms. On the question of 20% chance of frogs falling from the sky. Remember that there are two ways of looking at this - both quite valid. A 20 % chance of an occurence is fairly low - that's because there is an 80% chance that frogs won't fall from the sky.(20% + 80% = 100%)
2016-03-17 04:45:27 · answer #2 · answered by Dolores 3 · 0⤊ 0⤋
This Site Might Help You.
RE:
How accurate is a 10 day weather forecast?
I'm having an outdoor party on Sept 2nd. The weather calls for thunderstorms with a 60% chance.
2015-08-16 11:57:50 · answer #3 · answered by ? 1 · 0⤊ 0⤋
not very. 3 day forecast is 75%, 5 day forecast is 50%, 10 day is 25%. Check forecast again in a week.
2006-08-24 08:55:43 · answer #4 · answered by Steve R 6 · 7⤊ 0⤋
The much maligned weather forecast is more or less accurate these days.
With Television companies investing in their own satellites to do the finding and group of experienced scientists who sit down and work towards mapping of every detail, and all this coupled with much advanced computer simulations, the weather report, these days, is not as bad as it used to be. In fact I have seen exact predictions of temperatures and rain over my own city.
I trust the BBC's weather report more than the American ones, it seems better researched.
2006-08-24 07:30:12 · answer #5 · answered by Ivory James 1 · 0⤊ 2⤋
not very accurate
sometimes the forecast is for nice days when it is raining outside.
apparently some forecaster work in rooms without windiws
2006-08-24 07:25:33 · answer #6 · answered by advisor7 1 · 1⤊ 0⤋
It's accurate for about 10 days
2006-08-24 07:22:56 · answer #7 · answered by Roger C 2 · 1⤊ 3⤋
Generally accurate, not specific to time and severity of the weather.
2006-08-24 15:33:07 · answer #8 · answered by Anonymous · 0⤊ 0⤋
not very...check your weather forecast again in a couple of days and i bet it will have changed for the better...or worse :)
2006-08-24 08:29:51 · answer #9 · answered by etherialdowntime024 2 · 1⤊ 0⤋
The first two, or three, days, can be fairly accurate. After that, there are simply too many variables...
Vandevere
2006-08-24 07:23:49 · answer #10 · answered by Ven D 3 · 1⤊ 0⤋