in math class i thought about this see if you can make sense of it.
OK, lets say i bet you that when a coin flips it will be heads. But what you didnt know was that i previously flipped the coin untill i got 4 tails in a row before you came. The chances of haveing a coin land on tails 5 times in a row is slim, so isnt the chances of getting a head beter? so now the coin has a greater probability of geting heads? i cant figure it out!!
2006-08-23 01:44:24 · 15 answers · asked by john 3 in Science & Mathematics ➔ Mathematics
i know it should be 50/50 but i cant seem to get it threw my head. Ok so if the chances of getting a coin 5 times in row is 1/32, then the chances of getting 6 is 1/64, right? so on that 6th toss, wouldnt you think the chances of geting a side that didnt make 6 in a row apear??
2006-08-23 02:03:30 · update #1
Hi. The coin does not "remember" how many times it has been flipped or what the outcome was. Neither does nature. The odds are the same for each flip.
2006-08-23 02:03:18 · answer #1 · answered by Cirric 7 · 0⤊ 0⤋
Every time you flip the coin there is 50% chance it lands heads, 50% chance it lands tails, that never changes. The thing is, interesting as it may be that you already got 4 tails in a row, that does not impact the probability of your next flip. Every time, 50%. You are looking at making it a different question " What is the probability I will flip 5 tails in a row?" But the 4 tails before does not impact the probability of your next flip in any way. So if you want to look at it the way you are looking at it, you already beat the odds, now your back to a 50% chance again on the next flip.
2006-08-23 08:52:38 · answer #2 · answered by dizzygillespie 2 · 0⤊ 0⤋
You're running into what's called the Gambler's Fallacy.
The short answer is that you have to think of so-called "conditional probability": the changes of having a coin land tails 5 times in a row is 1/32, but the chances of having a coin land tails 5 times in a row given that it's already done so four times is (1/32) ÷ (1/16) = 1/2.
In sum, the coin still has an equal probability of landing either heads or tails.
For more info, see the link below. Hope it helps!
2006-08-23 10:47:54 · answer #3 · answered by Jay H 5 · 0⤊ 0⤋
the probability of getting heads when flipping a coin is independent of the other and since it only can be either heads or tails, the probability will always (until the end of time unless its weighted) be 50%. however, to get 5 times in a row, is (1/2)(1/2)(1/2)(1/2)(1/2) which is 1/32..
2006-08-23 09:00:25 · answer #4 · answered by Anonymous · 0⤊ 0⤋
The answer is no. The probability of getting tail again is still 0.5. In every single flip. Nothing on earth can change it (unless you are cheating).
Now consider this. I flip the coin at 1:00 AM. I got head. The next day exactly at 1:00 AM I got head again. After 4 days do you think the possibility will decrease?
The time span between each flip has nothing to do with probability.
I know you feel uneasy about this. Try to think differently. Math is different our "common sense".
2006-08-23 08:55:03 · answer #5 · answered by dactylifera001 3 · 0⤊ 0⤋
You have a 50/50 chance each time you flip the coin, regardless of how many times you've flipped it beforehand. Probablility is a consideration but has no basis each time you flip. Your odds are still the same.
Edit: The odds of getting the same results on consecutive tosses are completely separate from the 50:50 odds of heads or tails on each flip.
Think of it like this. Let's assume that the odds of getting into a car accident each time you drive are 1:5,000. You get into an accident and after the police report is filed, you drive away from the scene.
Your chances of getting into an accident are still 1:5,000, but the likelihood that you'll get into a second accident on that day may be something like 1:5,000,000 (I'm just throwing out numbers).
2006-08-23 08:52:05 · answer #6 · answered by shorebreak 3 · 0⤊ 0⤋
No. Every time you flip a coin, the chance of heads coming up is 50% (unless you're using a weighted coin). What happened in the past doesn't have any effect on what happens in the future
2006-08-23 08:51:51 · answer #7 · answered by 006 6 · 0⤊ 0⤋
Another way to think about it is to say that while the odds of getting 5 tails in a row is only 1:32, the odds of getting a fifth tail given that you have already gotten four tails (an important distinction) is the same old 1:2. You already beat impressive 1:16 odds to get that far.
2006-08-23 09:04:25 · answer #8 · answered by DavidK93 7 · 0⤊ 0⤋
The odds of any coin toss are always 1:2, whether you flip once or a hundred times.
2006-08-23 08:52:18 · answer #9 · answered by Ben 4 · 0⤊ 0⤋
From a basic definition of probability, being (the number of desire outcomes) / (the number of possible outcomes)
Thus, the desire outcome is a tail from a flip, i.e. 1 desire outcome.
Possible outcomes of a flip: tail or head, i.e. 2 possible outcomes.
But I like the answer that mention the flips are independent events.
2006-08-23 15:29:34 · answer #10 · answered by back2nature 4 · 0⤊ 0⤋