Odds & consequences of collision: 2001-XU with Earth on 10 December 2141 ?

Question

2001-XU has these Keplerian elements.

a 2.56845 AU
e 0.838301
i = 19.065 deg
L = 261.488 deg
w = 285.569 deg
T = JD 2453816.2

I've been getting minimum approaches between this asteroid's orbit and Earth's orbit of about 750 kilometers, meaning that the physical body of Earth contains a segment of the asteroid's orbit for about seven minutes each year.

Looking ahead, I've noticed that there's a very close passby in December 2141. What chance is there for a collision? If there is a collision the impact speed will be 30.881 km/sec (including the acceleration by Earth's gravity). To figure the impact energy, we need to know the asteroid's mass. What is it?

http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?objects:2001XU;main
http://earn.dlr.de/nea/K01X00U.htm
http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/lists/Dangerous.html

I have a guess of 320 meters for the average radius.

Answer 1

If the average radius of this asteroid is 320 meters, then the volume would be 1.373E+8 cubic meters. Assuming an average density of 3000 kilograms per cubic meter, the mass would be 4.118E+11 kilograms. In that case, the impact energy will be 1.963E+20 Joules, or the equivalent of about 47000 megatons TNT. What a blast!

Your value for the average radius is probably estimated from the apparent magnitude, with somebody's guess being used for the asteroid's albedo. If the asteroid's surface is brighter (has a higher albedo) than expected, its average radius will be smaller than this estimate. Conversely, if the asteroid is darker (has a lower albedo), than expected, it's average radius will be larger than the estimate.

The mass of the asteroid, and hence its impact energy, will vary as the third power of the average radius. Halving the radius will result in an impact energy of only around 6000 megatons TNT, whereas doubling the radius would result in an impact energy of perhaps 375000 megatons TNT.

By the way, I used your orbital elements and the ones that I have for Earth and discovered that 2001-XU has a chance of striking us once in each 177 years. After the encounter on 10 Dec 2141, there's another on 11 Dec 2318 and yet another on 11 Dec 2495. The most recent encounter was on 10 Dec 1964.

Judging by the trend, however, it may be that 2001-XU engages Earth in a flurry of encounters that streteches across a thousand years or so, then for a while we're off the bull's eye, and after that back on again.

Answer 2

Don't you know nuffink. The moon was formed when a huge bottle of milk left over from the big bang went sour and turned into cheese. If Venus was anything to do with it it would be a toasted cheeseball floating in space whereas it is in fact covered in melted chocolate which suggests a collision with mars

Answer 3

Cool question, but I'm afraid I don't know the mass of the asteroid.

Seemslike if it is big enough to be tracked it could be a doomsday event.

Answer 4

There is a lot of space out there. So much so that it is unlikely that this will happen. Technology will be such that we will be able to intercept it early and divert it enough to have it avoid Earth Gravity.

Answer 5

these links show that the size of 2001-XU can only be estimated. also note the originating site spaceweather.com alot of good info from there.

be cool.

Answer 6

Try looking it up on NASA's NEO webpage. Lost the link a week ago sry.

Answer 7

I cannot find the object you seek.

Answer 8

are you gay or are you being gay?

or are you just being gay because your asking a gay question or is it cuz your gay in order to ask the question that you asked for the gay purpose, or is it just that the question is gay and your a moron without knowing your being gay?

Answer 9

no such thing exists.