What are the hard facts on the number of dems and reps to lose/gain seats in Congress this fall.?

Question

I dont want to hear what you want to happen. What do the polls, political anylist, ... etc... say.

Answer 1

Without spending hours on this, I've read reports from various analysts that say the GOP is serious trouble come November. They estimate the loses for the Senate at 5 ~ 7 seats (with 5 being the most common estimate) which would keep the Senate in GOP hand by the slimmest of margins.

49 Democrats
50 Republicans (Plus the VP for ties)
1 Independent (who caucuses with Dems)

In early August, Larry Sabato predicted a pro-Democratic shift of 3-6 Senate seats

The House is a different story. The estimate run from a low of 12 seats lost to a high of 45. This would give the Dems a lead in the house:

216 Democrats
216 Republicans
1 Independant (who caucuses with Dems)

The Cook Political Report, an independent, non-partisan election analysis newsletter, has listed 74 seats, 54 currently held by Republicans and 20 by Democrats, as being potentially in play

In early August, Larry Sabato predicted a pro-Democratic shift of 12-15 seats in the House

Answer 2

"Polls, political anylists, ... etc." do not deal in "hard facts." They only deal in opinions. And what the anylists do is simply predict based on current trends. But they always acknowledge that some kind of change in circumstances could result in an election turning out to be a "surprise."

Answer 3

It's too early to say. But I do remember another election year when the Dems starting to celebrate early and they got their butts beat.

Answer 4

Solid question-I would say that Congress is so gerrymandered now that the status quo will prevail.