Which of the players on this list will make it to the H.O.F.?

Question

Roberto Alomar, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Edgar Martinez, Curt Schilling, Fred McGriff, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, John Smoltz, Juan Gonzalez, Jim Thome, Frank Thomas, Omar Vizquel, Ichiro Suzuki and Billy Wagner

I didn't mention players that to me are shoo-ins like: Jeter, A-Rod, I-Rod, Clemens, Glavine, Randy Johnson, Maddux, Piazza, etc.

Georgie Porgie: I did mention I-Rod ... look at my shoo-in list

Answer 1

Out of that list, here are my picks broken into 3 categories, from "Definitely" to "Still Work Left to Do" to "No"

Definitely:

Craig Biggio - offensive numbers comparative and sometimes better than Sandberg's. If there is one guy on this list I would hang my hat on, it would be him.

Still Work Left to Do:

Ichiro Suzuki - If he came to the US earlier, he would be a definite, and arguably one of the best leadoff men ever to live. But, HOF voters will take only his MLB experience, and not his Japan pro career, into account. I still think he has a few years of HOF type seasons left, which may just get him in

John Smoltz - He's getting close, but I think he needs a couple more seasons of pitching at a high level. There have been pitchers with his numbers that have NOT gotten in.

Curt Schilling - Hmmm... if Smoltz doesn't get in, then Schilling doesn't.

No:

Omar Vizquel - Offensive numbers not impressive enough, and as consistent as he has been in the field, he's always been noted as a guy that makes all the routine plays (thus his absurdly high fielding percentage), but has limited range compared to other SS greats

Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez - The HOF does not favor career DH's

Juan Gonzalez - Terrible defensive player, and probably underrated throughout his career. But, he will come up for HOF consideration around the time that Ken Griffey Jr does, and there is no chance that both get in (it's possible neither do). I think Griffey gets in, Juan-Gone goes home.

Fred McGriff - 1b with good, but not spectacular numbers for a 1b. No chance. Keith Hernandez has better numbers, including numerous Gold Gloves, and an MVP, and he won't get in. Neither will McGriff

Billy Wagner - Closers generally don't get in. Mariano Rivera will. Wagner won't.

Andy Pettite - Umm... no offense, but he shouldn't even be mentioned for consideration

Mike Mussina - I've always liked him, but he's not HOF caliber. (Just look at the starting pitchers in the HOF - they are all GREAT pitchers)

And to your "shoe-in" list, you can add Manny Ramirez. As much as I genuinely don't like him, the guy has consistently been the best RBI guy of this generation.

Answer 2

Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio will not only go in, but they will likely go in the same year. To be consistantly good as they both have been for so long is Hall worthy. John Smoltz is in, thanks to his over 100 saves and even more wins. He has led the Braves to 14 straight division championships, a feat that, too, is Hall worthy. Jim Thome and Frank Thomas will both be in if they can both reach the 500 home run mark. Without that distinction, it will be tougher for both of them. Omar Vizquel is in. 10 Gold Gloves, and a career BA of around .300 will draw attention. Couple that with the highest lifetime fielding percentage of any SS ever and you have yourself a Hall of Famer.

Roberto Alomar is on the bubble. Although he was one of the greatest 2nd basemen of all-time, his reputation could hurt him. Since the media votes, his spitting on an ump incident could hurt him. Edgar Martinez is also on the bubble. He put up great numbers, but as a career DH you need to put up outstanding numbers. Fred McGriff is on the bubble because most of his numbers are tainted by longevity. Juan Gonzalez is on the bubble as well, since he had a span of about 6 or 7 good years. It will be up to the voters to decide if thats enough.

Schilling, Pettitte, and Mussina all need a few more good years. Of this list, Mussina is probably the most likely. Schilling did give a gutsy performance in the 2004 WS, but i still need to see a few more solid years from him, especially since he pitched in an era with the likes of Clemens, R. Johnson, Maddux, Glavine, etc.

Ichiro and Billy Wagner both need a lot more good years. Billy Wagner is not very likely to be a HOFer, due to his position. Although Bruce Sutter was elected this year, you still don't see many relievers in the Hall.

That being said, I don't see a few names on this list that I think will be considered:
Pedro Martinez, Manny Ramirez, Trevor Hoffman, Todd Helton and many others.

Answer 3

Bagwell for sure. Alomar probably. At one time the debate was whether Alomar or Carlos Baerga (who?) would wind up being the greatest 2B ever. Vizquel and Biggio are at least better than 50% (Vizquel is under rated in my opinion).

McGriff and Thomas are borderline, with Gonzalez having a slim chance at best. Martinez is definitely a notch below HOF status. If I had to bet, I'd bet against all four. If I had to vote, passing up Thomas would be hard.

It's a little early to draw a conclusion about Thome and Suzuki (Baerga who?), but I think Thome will be a probable choice.

Among the pitchers, John Smoltz has the best chance, but that would be 50-50 at best. Schilling, Pettite, and Mussina are just a notch below HOF (great years, good careers) and Wagner has no chance as a reliever.

Off topic, but your mention of Johnson and Clemens reminds me how amazing their stats are. I remember the big question being whether Gaylord Perry would surpass 3500 strikeouts and break Walter Johnson's record. He eventually did, but he wound up being only the third to do so, thanks to Nolan Ryan and Steve Carlton blowing on by him. Clemens's and Johnson's 4500 and 4300 strikeouts would be unimaginable numbers if Ryan hadn't put up over 5700. Clemens and Johnson are 2nd and 3rd on the all-time strike out list and are still over a 1000 strikeouts behind Nolan Ryan.

Answer 4

Why doesn't anyone include Omar Vizquel. I guaruntee he is going in. He is the best fielding shortstop of his era.. 3 errors so far this year and he will win an 11th gold glove at the most important defensive position. He is also going to bat .300 again and steal a bunch of bases. A fantastic player that is his era's ozzie smith, but better offensively.

gonzalez not in...
most of the rest will probably make it,, mcgriff it will be interesting to see if the voters vote in a non steriod guy.

Answer 5

Ichiro will be first ballot. Bagwell, Biggio, Schilling, McGriff, Smoltz will eventually make it. I don't think the others will unless by the veterans committee. I agree with your shoo ins except for I-Rod. He will eventually get there, though.

Answer 6

Curt Schilling cuz he has 2 world championships, one of which ended an 86 year curse, and the other he was co-MVP for the world series with Randy Johnson. He even pitched in Game 6 with of the 2004 ALCS with a bloody sock!

Answer 7

I will say that Schilling and Smoltz go into the HOF, with Bagwell, Wagner and Thome as the best of the rest.

Answer 8

bagwell
biggio
schilling
smoltz
thome
visquel
thomas

mcgriff should but will probably be a long shot for some reason according to what i read.
mussina and pettite will be close but they don't have some of the stats members who have been voted had according to what i have seen on the sports shows.
suzuki is to early to tell.
tough for closers to get in. wagner needs some more good years however i do believe mariano rivera will make it.
edgar martinezwas great but didn't play enough outfield to get in.
roberto alomar was great but ended the last few years in a down turn!
juan gonzalez as good as he was he doesn't have the numbers to get in!

Answer 9

My votes would go to John Smoltz and Ichiro Suzuki. If Frank Thomas makes it to 500 home runs, he is in also. I'm not totally convinced of any of the others.

Answer 10

Thome is simply a prolific hitter (1 off year) - if he plays a few more he's definately in the HOF.

I'm glad you put Omar on there. As someone who got to see him play all the time in Cleveland I got used to seeing the specatacular as far as glove work (and he's made himself a decent hitter too).

Other than that I think Icharo, Moose and Alomar on your list will definately go too.