how much percent of forex traders are winner in long term?

Answer 1

this market is very risky and most of traders are loser.about 90%of traders are loser 5%no loser no winner and 5% are winner.

Answer 2

Very few. Most professional currency traders trade in the futures markets. To professionally trade in the futures markets (i.e., to trade with other people's money), one needs to register as a Commodity Pool Operator (CPO) or a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The statistics of CPO/CTA registrations show that CPO/CTA have an annual attrition rate of 15%. It means that about half of CPO/CTA active today will cease operations within the next four years.

The previous poster asserted that the currency market is a zero-sum game. This is true only before costs and spreads. Once you take those into account, the currency market becomes a negative-sum game.

The statistics of actual traders are far from inspiring. Since 1993, the 30 or so funds that constitute CSFB/Tremont Managed Futures Index have delivered 6% mean annual return with standard deviation of 12%. Over the same period of time, the S&P 500 returned 10.3% with standard deviation of 14.5%. The Sharpe ratio of managed futures funds was a paltry 0.18 compared to S&P 500's 0.44.

The true value of currency speculation lies in the fact that the returns on currency trading are weakly (indeed, negatively) correlated with stock market returns. So currency trading is only good as a diversifier, not as a primary investment strategy.

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Answer 3

Well, in some ways I'd say '50%'.

Foreign exchange trading is a zero sum game. For every dollar earned on foreign currency derivatives, someone else lost a dollar. So on average, there's no profit. This is different from say, the stock market, where the average person can hold an 'average' bundle of stocks that appreciate over time.

While the f/x market is in total a zero sum game, that's probably not true for traders. We can imagine two types of people in the f/x market - people trying to hedge (protect) themselves against currency movement, and people trying to make money.

Lets look at a simple example. US$ vs Euros. Some US funds or individuals may have investments in europe, and are concerned the US$ will rise (hah ;) ) so they want to protect themselves. So they'd like to lock in selling euros for dollars in the future. Going the other way there might be european investors with US holdings who would like to lock in selling dollars for euros. If there were equal numbers of people (well dollars actually) on either side, they'd be in balance, and they would be able to lock in a future trade say 1 year from now at the generally expected exchange rate at that time.

This is unlikely. Its quite likely that there will be an excess of one sort of 'hedger' over the other. Perhaps more people would like to lock in selling dollars then lock in selling euros. When this happens, the people who want to lock in selling dollars have to 'outbid' each other by accepting terms that are _worse_ then what people expect the exchange rate to be. They are still willing to do this because it protects them in case exchange rates move even more then expected. As the 'future' exchange rate begins to drift further from the 'expected' exchange rate, our secong group of investors - those trying to make money - begin coming and and taking the offsetting position. The future rate will get worse and worse until enough of this 'second' group come in to balance out the excess hedgers on one side.

Now, will this second group always make money? No. Sometimes exchange rates will move against them. But on average, they probably do make money. Its worth considering what it is they are really doing. The speculative traders are, effectively, selling insurance to people who want to hedge against unexpected currency movements.

Answer 4

People say that its 10% only..You can improve the skill by reading at -

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