Is the housing market about to collapse?

Question

Should I invest in a home now or wait and possibly get a much better deal?

Answer 1

Here is a scenario in which it might collapse.

People bid up prices on housing because they were getting very low interest rates. Many purchased homes that they actually could really not afford. Many of those rates are adjustable. Rates at the moment are still relatively low, but with inflation heating up that might not last much longer. A 1% increase in interest rates on a $200,000 mortgate means an extra $167 a month in mortgage payments. That is on top of the extra having to be paid for energy--gasoline, electricity, home heating. And let us not forget credit card debt. 2% $334 a month 3% $501 a month.

It is my guess that many people with adjustable rate mortgages are going to have to let the banks take over their homes. The banks are not going to want to sit on these properties. They will want to get rid of them. When these distressed properties hit the market prices will start dropping. Now when Joe Blow sees that homes like his that he has a mortgage of $200,000 on are now selling for $150,000 and he can barely make the mortgage payment on anyway and with a heating bill of $1000 a month and a gasoline bill of $1000 and an electric bill of $300 a month and a cell phone bill of $150 a month, what do you think he is going to do?

Besides the folks with adjustable rate mortgages getting wiped out, what to you think is going to happen to the banks that hold those mortgages? Will we have another S&L fiasco? What about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? The whole house of cards could come down.

If that happens you can thank Allen Greenspan.

Answer 2

The housing market fluctuates but the historical trend is up. As long as you don't do something foolish like get a variable rate interest loan you will not be able to afford the payment on when the interest rates rise, I believe you are good to go at anytime. May I suggest you get a nice long 30 year mortgage with a fixed rate interest put just enough money down to secure the loan and afford the payment and then if there is money left over, invest it in a good interest bearing account. It is foolish to invest money into paying off a home early when you get a tax deduction from interest paid, and the equity value will grow even if you have a mortgage or not. Invest your equity it will always net you a better profit in the end than sitting on it.

Answer 3

The housing market is not going to collapse. It is, as it always does, entering a slow down and pause phase.
Depending on where you are, the best time to shop for homes is in January and February. There is not much action at that time of year. So competition is up for sellers and down for buyers. You can use the time to keep tabs on mortgage rate movement, if any.
You used the word "invest." If you think of your home as having a big black hole inside the front door, where you throw all of your money in, every day, it will give you a better perspective on home ownership.
If you can get mortgage and tax payments somewhere near rent rates, you might be better off buying a home. It takes an experienced tax accountant to figure it out. Don't rely on Realtors for comparison of buy versus rent. They always make up a scenario where buying is better than renting - and that's for the first year.
Homes appreciate in value, but all that means is you pay more taxes.

Answer 4

This depends very much on your location... it could collapse in areas that appear to have grossly overpriced homes... I mean, a million dollars for a two-bedroom home? That's insane. In most areas, you'll find the housing market to be stable... you might as well take the plunge because rent is not building any equity for you at all. I wouldn't wait... interest rates are more likely to jump up rather than go down.

Answer 5

Seeing that many are taking longer to sell, and they've built too many new homes to meet the demand, it appears in many areas home values and pricing will be heading lower.

By how much is anybody's guess.

My best guess would be to look in areas not affected by the resent housing bubble.

There are lots of places where homes are modestly priced so that people can afford them.

I would say homes that sell for less than two hundred thousand dollars are worth looking into.

Good luck. Happy hunting.

Answer 6

Personally, I'm waiting for a couple more years and plan on paying cash so I don't care what interest rates do as I do not borrow money. The prices will come down very hard in my opinion. I've learned that when everyone says buy now, its best to be a contrarian and do the opposite.
lessons from the NASDAQ crash are quickly forgotten I guess.

Answer 7

No, it's not going to "collapse". It would require an economic depression like in the 20's for that to happen. HOWEVER, it's about to (and has already started to) recess a little. Having said that it almost ALWAYS makes more financial sense to own rather than rent.

Slainte,

-D

Answer 8

it all depends on location. in my part of NY the houses are finally starting to come down in price. I would wait a little longer before buying one here. you pay less, but have to remember the price will always go back up.

Answer 9

It's a buyer's market.
I'm not sure how the market will collapse, but it won't be shifting any time soon.

Answer 10

They keep making people, but they aren't making any more land.