Do you beleive that "Hurricane Predictions" can ever be accurate?

Question

It seems every year we hear predictions before the hurricane season, only to have them revised by the "Experts" who made them, each and every year they "Revise" their predictions, I say HOGWASH, there is no way to predict the number of storms which will form, or whether of not and how many of them will hit land.

I say a crystal ball is just as good a scientific instrument for such predictions as any in use today

Answer 1

It's like asking if the can ever successfully determine the flight pattern of a fly.

So no.

Answer 2

Hurricane predictions are a science which combines a ton of other things with is, like water temperatures, water currents, atmospheric pressure and what else not goes with it. Therefore, some things are more a probability, and that's the reason that due to changes in the factors these predictions will have to be revised. I honestly think, it's a nice thing, even not always accurate due to the unreliability of forces of nature, but never the less, these predictions are better in helping to be prepared rather than sitting and waiting and getting surprised by such a force of nature without no warning upfront.

Living on the gulf coast, these predictions are definitely helpful for me.

Answer 3

No, no way to absolutely say how many will hit land. However, predictions follow mathematical models that take all of the info available and run the possibilities, conditions do change locally though, and that is why it is nearly impossible to determine exactly how many or where they will hit. The important thing to get from these predictions is the general pattern over several years, that way the public at large may be more prepared during an upswing period in amount of storms and always have a plan of action just in case.

Answer 4

These predictions are based upon past experiences, natural phenomena, and proxies that we don't even understand well. They can't even predict an accurate weather forecast beyond 3 days, much less for a whole season into the future...or even worse...for the global warming freaks out there...years into the future. Remember that late season storm way out in the Atlantic last year? Every day for a week, the weather guys kept saying it was going to die...but it didn't. Unfortunately, the media sucks this stuff up and spits it out to us to make big $$$ and way too many of us just stare at the screen and nod our heads. Break out your crystal ball, make your best guess, and call Fox News!

Answer 5

Not with current technology. As a matter of fact, it may be impossible because of the constant changes that take place in our atmosphere.

Take this year for example, the "powers that be" predicted earlier this year that it would be a bad year for hurricanes. They stated that the stage was set for 25-30 hurricanes that would influence the US and surrounding ares and that up to 10 could be major storms approaching Katrina severity.

Now in just the past couple of days these same "authorities" have downgraded that estimate to about 10 hurricanes for the season (forgive me, but I can't remember how many they said would pose major threats to the US et. al.). That says to me that we have a long way to go before we can accurately predict the weather, especially in the long term.

Pretty much agrees with your well thought out thesis.

Answer 6

What you see now, is what you get as far as their accuracy goes. Their predictions with any accuracy would be to predict a bad hurricane season based on a lot of hurricanes as opposed to one or two.

This is achieved by oceanographic water temperature readings. The warmer the ocean currents, the much greater chance (underline the word chance) of numerous hurricanes as the warm currents are what spawn the big super twisters.

They are as good as they are going to get, based on predictive accuracy and the rest is all make your best guesstimate.

It would be better for coastal populations to go into Termination rather than prediction, but then it's called job security. They get paid for guessing, not preventing.

By seeding the clouds in an area where a super cell is developing, you can cause the baby cane to loose all its energy Thur torrential rains and mini storms and expel all their energy before they get close to land.

Good question,

Darryl S.

Answer 7

As far as I am concerned, we spend way to much time and money on weather forecasting, which has proved to be a very inaccurate science. The 7 day forecast for Vancouver, Canada is not as accurate now as it was 40 years ago when there was a weather ship off the coast out about 800 miles in the Pacific. Now they have satellites, doplar radar and all the bullshit, but still they may as well just flip a coin. And there is so much time spent on the news talking about the damn weather...crazy...we cant change it..hurrican forecasting is pretty good...but they cant pinpoint where it will land....but it does save lives.

Answer 8

Short answer: Yes, I believe they can be accurate..

Longer answer: Yes, but you're jumping the gun by making your presumption, as historically the Atlantic basin's tropical cyclone season is at its maximum during September and October (link 1).

I didn't want to tediously go through the exact specifics of NOAA's August seasonal update (link 2), but they do provide their reasoning to this forecast and compare it to the extremely active 2005 season. NOAA also maintains a forecast archive, and you can see their rationale behind their previous forecasts in that archive (link 3).

One reason why revised predictions is issued in August is that they take into account the present conditions in the tropics just before the climatological height of the tropical cyclone season.

For instance, Dr. Gray's team at Colorado State University's atmospheric science department uses a statistical method to compare the following predictors in the August update (link 4).

Prior to that August update, they issue a seasonal forecast in April. There are better predictors of the upcoming season's tropical cyclone activity in April than what are used in August(link 5). Keep in mind though that the skill goes up with the August forecast because in the August forecast, more direct tropical cyclone formation conditions are actually used over the basin of interest.

Dr. Gray's team found yet another different set of predictors work better in making predictions in the winter prior to the upcoming Atlantic tropical cyclone season (link 6).

Dr. Gray's team has been improving their procedures since their first seasonal forecasts in 1984.

Regarding your last statement, NOAA sums it up pretty well in their cautionary notes (near bottom of link 7).

Answer 9

I agree with you. Wish Dr. Gray would just shut up. I get so tired of hearing about the predictions! Just filler for lack of news with the media. It only takes one like Katrina. I just keep an eye on the weather daily down here in Louisiana. Unless there is a psychic who is 100% accurate then I feel like these weather people ought to just drop the whole thing about predictions. It is one thing to tell us about the current conditions, i.e. water temps, air flows, lows, etc. But to actually try to predict is ridiculous.

Answer 10

i agree with you. every year they make predictions, then when the season does not go as planned they make revisions. those people have no idea how many hurricanes there are going to be, its a guess. hence, all the revisions later on.

Answer 11

Its like the weather, they are never right. Its all based on probability because of certain factors they are seeing in the weather. They use historical patterns based on what is happening in the present to predict what should happen in the future. Make any sense? No wonder they are always wrong huh?