I heard this morning on the BBC that the full moon was going to cause a volcano to erupt!?

Question

Is this some kind of wind up, or is there a genuine link between the two?

Answer 1

Scientists believe the the gravatational pull from the moon may be the final piece in the puzzle that causes the volcano in the Phillipines to erupt.

It is already very close to erupting and this may be the straw that breaks the camels back...no wind up.

Answer 2

I don't appove of people who just paste answers in from websites, but Dr Phil, the Bad Astronomer, has addressed this so well, I can't really imporve on his comments!

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Mooning a volcano

Can the gravity from the Moon trigger a volcano eruption?

Possibly. But will it trigger Mount Mayon in the Philippines tonight? Let me check the Magic 8-ball… signs say no. Here’s why.





A BBC report report this morning says that "experts" — no names, affiliations, or quotations were given — are concerned that the full Moon may trigger an eruption of the Philippine volcano Mount Mayon. It’s a very active volcano and ripe for an event. It could blow any time now. So is there cause for concern given the full Moon tonight?

I’m gona go with "no". The gravity of the Moon does affect the Earth, of course, mostly through tides. As it happens, tides are strongest when the Moon is full (and when it’s new as well, which the article doesn’t mention), so there is at least some reason to investigate this. And the BBC report says that the full Moon "coincided with at least three of Mayon’s 47 eruptions, including the two most recent ones in 2000 and 2001".

But let’s look at this critically, shall we? First of all, what does "coincide" mean?

First, Mayon is a very active volcano. It has quakes, minor explosions, lahars (mud flows) and such all the time. Certainly some will coincide with the full and new Moon. Let’s be generous and say that the time period around the full Moon is 2 days: a day before and a day after. The Moon goes through a complete cycle in roughly 29 days, so it’s full for 2/29 = 1/15th of the time. If you then look at 47 eruptions, then you expect to see 47/15 = 3 eruptions near the full Moon. And hey, that’s exactly what the report says!

So, statistically speaking, the Moon has nothing to do with eruptions. If it did, you’d expect to see a bump in the number of events near the full Moon. But the number of eruptions near the full Moon is what you’d expect from random chance. In other words, on average it doesn’t matter if the Moon is full, new, first quarter, or whatever. Now to be fair, the article doesn’t say how big a time period they used around the full Moon. Maybe they only used one day, not two. Even then, the correlation would be weak, because 47 eruptions isn’t a big enough sample to choose from. It’s small number statistics, like flipping a coin three times and having it come up heads each time. It’s rare, but it does happen on average one out of every eight times. You need bigger samples to get good statistics.

Now, there is some evidence that the Moon can cause earthquakes, and maybe even near volcanoes. But even then, if this were true in the case of Mount Mayon you’d expect more eruptions near the full Moon. It’s not seen, so again I think the correlation here is very weak.

So I am not totally discounting a connection between the Moon and this volcano, but I am saying that at best such a link is very weak, and probably not worth worrying about. The folks who live on the banks of Mayon have enough to worry about already!

I wonder: if it does erupt tonight, what will those "experts" say? But more interestingly, what if it waits three days?

Answer 3

Wow...and people think the BBC is a legitimate news organization? While tides from the moon may or may not have a very minor effect on tectonic and volcanic activity...the actually phase of the moon has NOTHING to do with it. A full moon is no more likely to contribute to quakes or volcanoes than a quarter or crescent moon. I would expect more of a correlation (if there is one at all) to the moon's distance from the Earth.

Answer 4

Well if the BBC say it, it must be true!
Sounds a bit iffy though. It would be nice if they would explain the science.
I can imagine that gravity could affect the level of the magma in the volcano, like the tides of the sea. What difference a full moon makes compared to any other phase I'm not sure.

Answer 5

This is one of those unproven theories that is actually rooted in ancient folk tales. Before one goes dismissing the notion it should be said that 'primitive' fishing folks knew The Tsunami of 2005 was happening way before anyone else. It is true that a Full Moon exerts a stronger gravitational pull HOWEVER is it has yet to be verified that a volcanic eruption was actually the result of a full moon. But with Geography &Science, any day I could be proven wrong or as as Andy Dick would say, "Wronger."

Answer 6

Many observers have commented on the tendency for eruptions to be initiated or become stronger at times of full moon when the tidal stresses in the crust are greatest.

Answer 7

Isn't the BBC in England where more people practice witchcraft per capita then any other country in the world?

Also from England.... British reporter Ruth Gledhill published an article based on a British study.

Here is her headline ....Societies worse off 'when they have God on their side'

The British media seems very shakey to me....

Answer 8

It isn't the actual full moon that would cause it, it is what causes the full moon (the way the moon and sun align) that might cause it.

That's my guess anyway. Where did you actually hear this? I checked the BBC News website and can't see anything about it.

Answer 9

Scaremongering

Answer 10

it is genuine. the force of gravity the same as the one affecting the tides seems to affect volcanic activity