What if the Wade-Davis Bill had been enacted?

Question

What do you think would have happened if the Wade-Davis Bill had been enacted after the Civil War? Where do you think the Southern states would be today?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wade-Davis_Bill

Answer 1

Thanks for the Wikipedia link. This is indeed a very interesting what if as I could imagine Congress voting to override Lincoln's veto, so it's not a large stretch.

Given that this was taking place in 1864, when the future of the Confederacy was starting to become dim, the aims of the leadership in Richmond were beginning to evolve. Instead of hoping for outright independence, some in Richmond began to think that the best result was a return to the Union under favourable conditions, probably with an end to slavery but manumission instead of emancipation. Many in the South felt that their best hope was an electoral defeat of the Republicans in the 1864 elections.

If the Wade-Davis bill had become law, it would have signalled to the South that any return to the Union would have been totally as second-class citizens, if they were citizens at all. They would have correctly guessed that the South would be effectively an occupied zone, much like Palestine is today, and we know how that is working out.

I would say that the Confederacy might have fought to the last man instead of an honourable surrender in April 1865. Indeed, it was proposed to Lee that instead of full surrender that the Confederate armies disband and fight a guerrilla war instead. The American South would have become something like Viet Nam, Afghanistan, or insurgent Iraq. (Lee wisely refused.)

The closest the U.S. ever came to become at least in part a banana republic was with the lawless actions of the original KKK. Lincoln's moderate policies of Reconstruction, carried on by his successor, did more to heal the rifts of North and South than anything the Radical Republicans would have done. While the Radicals might have had noble intentions, it would have drained the resources of the United States and prevented the country from emerging as a first-class nation in the world.