Research study or prognosis of any kind made by an American scientist stating that the EU will fall apart?

Question

I remember reading about a specialist giving the EU about 20 more years, and now i desperately need this information, and i cannot find it anymore. Help, anyone?

Answer 1

Milton Friedman has tossed out the idea frequently that the larger, older members are attempting to make the newer members change their systems in an effort to make them less competitive. i.e. low tax policies of the Eastern Europeans threaten Germany & France's bureaucratic systems of government which are claimed to be less efficient. Cato Organization is a pretty highly respected group, but it is known for leaning to the right so take it for what is worth, and Friedman is 'little l libertarian and a big R republican' which isn't the flavor of the year.
Also, The Scotsman has reported that the CIA believe that demographic shifts may cause the EU to break up, but obviously the CIA isn't the source most people are looking to for accurate information.
Personally, IMHO, the EU isn't going to break up even though it is possible that one or two smaller countries may decide that staying in, or getting in, might not be such a good idea. The EU's main problems are that they aren't very productive, economically or demographically. But they are more productive, per person, than SEAsia, but the people in SEAsia work for pennies on the Euro, so to speak, so Europe has a hard time competing on manufacturing and, to a certain degree, the service industries as well. Europe's biggest problem, though, and one it shares with Japan, is that they aren't having children. Their population is growing older and there are fewer and fewer people of working age to support a generous social security system. Immigration seems to be the only answer, but the people that are moving to Europe tend to be from North Africa and France, Germany and the Netherlands are all having second thoughts about the wisdom of allowing large amounts of immigrants in when they don't seem to be assimilating very well, so far.

Answer 2

Google stuff on the immigration/demographics aspect.

Answer 3

yes it's true all the big countrys want to get our