What are the chances that the Greater Los Angeles/Santa Monica Area could experience a Hurricane?

Question

Do you think that it is possible for LA to have a hurricane since it is so close to the water? Explain, why or why not.

Answer 1

It's possible but very unlikely. Hurricanes are fueled by warm water temperatures, and water temperatures off the coast of CA are not conducive to 'canes. For a 'cane to strike LA, it would probably have to become very strong a great distance from LA, then make a fast beeline straight at LA, and get there, before it died from the cool Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) over which it would have to travel.

Hurricanes need minimum SST's of about 26 degrees C (78.8F) beneath them to sustain themselves even as weak ones. The warmer the SST's are, the more potential for a 'cane to be a powerful one.

If you look here:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

you'll see graphics that illustrate the current potential for hurricanes and their strength. Note that each color corresponds to a potential category of storm. At the top of each Potential Maximum Winds graphic, see where the bar graph says "TD, TS, H1, H2, H3, H4, H5"? Those mean "Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, Category 1 Hurricane, cat 2 'cane, etc." So, for example, where the SST's are represented as the tomato red color, a storm that exists would be expected to have a MAX strength of cat2.

There are also lines on the graphics themselves that tell you the actual SST's. Those numbers are identified as 26.5, 27, 28, etc. Those are isotherms (lines of equal temperature) of the SST's in celsius. The SST's are not hard and fast rules for predicting the strength of 'canes, however. What I mean is, don't assume that because some storm develops over water where the potential strength is H4, that a cat4 MUST result. Nor is a cat4 impossible over the "H3" color/temp. It's a forecast tool, not a crystal ball.

Now, if you find the CA coast on that page (It's the 7th and 8th graphics down), you can see that there are no warm SST's within about 1000 miles of LA. Hurricanes tend to move at about 10 to 15mph, so if one got going 1000 miles away, it would probably have to travel across cool water for about 3 to 4 days before it reached LA. Even a cat4 would weaken to less than hurricane strength if it did that. Katrina, for example, was no longer a hurricane at all about 24 hours after making landfall on 8-29-05, and being over cool water does about the same thing to a 'cane.

It being the time of year when SST's are near their peaks in the N hemisphere, the SST's off the CA coast won't get much warmer than they are right now, and they seldom do.

Here's another source for SST's:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsst.shtml

The Analysis graphics give you the SST's. The Anomaly graphics show you whether the SST's are below, average, or above average for this time of year.

Lastly, the steering winds usually steer 'canes in the eastern Pacific away from LA, not toward.

Answer 2

It could happen. How? Since typhoons form off Acpulco,Mexico the storm system once formed would depend on a varity of factors. Wind and varied fronts coming off the Pacific etc. All it has to take is the storm,hurricane to change its course and head upward or turn depending on weather conditions. Now its rare for a storm to form off the California coast. But for a hurricane to strike California it would have to take a radical change in the atomosphere for this happen.

Answer 3

It's possible...but it is very rare. In 1858 a hurricane hit San Diego. That's the only hurricane-category storm to hit California in recorded history. California has been hit several times by tropical storms and the remnants of hurricanes, but those are nothing like what hits the east coast.