Do you think on average, the stock market will go up, down, or stay the same for the next 6 months?

Question

Why, or why not will it go up, down, or stay the same?

Answer 1

I think there will be rough times ahead for the market in the U S. Other markets might not perform as the U S market.

Look at the charts. The DJIA peaked out in May although it is currently above the 50 day average. The Transports hit a double top in May and July.

Now look at the fundamentals. Interest rates are rising. Energy costs are way up. Budget deficit is astronomical as in balance of trade and consumer debt. Value of the dollar against other currencies is down down. Inflation is up up.

Now look at the large cap stocks especially. MSFT, HD, INTC, DELL, CSCO. What do you see? A lot closer to new lows than new highs. Could it be that smart money is bailing out?

Of course, markets are highly unpredictable and the future especially is unpredictable.

Answer 2

For the next 6 months, I see the market heading for a crash in October and then probably rally into December. But the primary concern should be the long term perspective. The prior poster had it correct in that the yield curve has inverted and that preceeds a recession. The Dow runs on a 17-18 year cycle. The last bull ran from 1982 to 2000 and the bear prior to that from 1965/66 to 1982. We are now in a secular bear market again that is only 6 years old, so we have another 11 to 12 years to go on this bear market.

Answer 3

for the next 6 months, the financial markets will go up and down, but at the end of the next 6 months, the Dow industrials index will be lower than it is currently. ....10,329.00.....S&P index-1128.00
Unrest in the world, war in the MiddleEast, civil war in Iraq, conflict with N. Korea and Iran along with high petroleum costs and interest rate increases around the world will be the possible causes.

Answer 4

Who said you cannot get good answers from Yahoo answers. All of the preceding thoughts on the stock market are clear, well thought out and are what you would get from some of the best investment advisers after paying them a hefty fee.

Answer 5

I think we are heading for a recession. Research has shown that whenever there is an inversion between three month interest rates and five year interest rates, a reecession follows. Guess where rates are now?