Will the US still be on top in 20 or 50 years?

Question

The European Union, despite it's rocky start has a growing economy and China has the fastest growing economy, ready to overtake the US as the largest. Many Pro-US members have made the point that despite president's mistakes and despite the ill-fated wars we are waging, the United States remains on top and is a country which is envied. The United States is doing well, but as jobs are exported and other countries produce lower cost goods and services, do you think our economy will fall from it's #1 spot in our lifetime? Furthermore, the our military dominance is wavering as European and Russian defence contractors build cheaper warplanes which are just as effective, along with comparable munitions and other equipment. Our only chance is that our allies will stand together as a base to support us. If we truly weaken do you think they will feel the need to dedicate themselves to us? I don't mean 5 or 10 years from now, but maybe 40 or 60 or 100...could 1 more BIG war do it?

*when I say on top, I mean that the United States has the ability to physically and economically impose its will on most of the world. I know it's not an absolute truth, but generally, we can just about bully most countries.

I know we can't bully Iran or China, but they have particular resources which make them exceptions... furthermore, consider whether the US will it's current level of dependence on oil from the middle east (Canada is the largest supplier of oil to the US) in the looooong term future.

Answer 1

Who says were on top now?
Our education system is in worse shape than some 3rd world countries.
Most Asian countries are years ahead of us in technology. Just a guess, but 90% of the latest Inventions in modern technology come from Japan.

I am an American but in my opinion We lost the lead YEARS AGO!!!

Answer 2

I don't think the U.S will be top dog in the future and I don't think it will take a world war to do it.
The rise and fall of nations/civilisations is a natural process. Ancient Egypt was top dog for more than 2000 years, but it only hung on to the title because the world was much emptier then and there was not the pressure of competition for power, land and trade we have now. Ancient Greece and Rome lasted at the top for mere centuries in comparison. Not many people even know of the sophisticated and successful cultures that thrived in West Africa before colonisation. The Mayans rose and fell seemingly without any outside interference.
America has enormous power and enormous problems, it's national debt is in the trillions, it is the most indebted nation on Earth, but it plays a high stakes game.
The U.S is spending billions on foreign wars, while China is building their 21st century economy. Though I think the foundations for China's are pretty rocky - fast, artificial growth will be difficult to sustain. I can see millions of Chinese dying as a result of disaster and disease because of their disregard for the environment.
Russia is still a mess, and everything they make and do is is shoddy, besides, they have a real problem with a shrinking population - absolutely no one wants to live there.
I think the real threat is the unity of the Muslim world, it is fanatical, intolerant and it will not bat an eye lid before nuking us all. A world under Sharia law does not bear thinking about. It will be the new Middle Ages.
The world looked very different even 50 years ago, and it will have changed again beyond recognition in a further 50.

Answer 3

The US isn't on top now. Technically, the GDP of the European Union is larger than US GDP. However, given the political climate in Europe, this seems almost inconsequential. They can't agree on a a constitution and therefore are not a cohesive political force.

Although China's economy is showing tremendous growth, it is still very small, only about 10% of the US economy even though they have almost 4 times as many people. Growth tends to be non-linear. A $1trillion economy, like China's, can grow at 10%/year for quite a few years without having too much effect on the world economy. But a $12.5 trillion economy like the US cannot for the simple reason the world lacks the resources to grow that fast. Think about it, if the US economy grew at 10%, that would be $1.25 trillion in growth in one year. That is larger than China's total GDP.

Anyway, do the math. China cannot catch us in one generation. And per capita, it is questionable if they ever could.

Back to Europe - all the growth is in the non-core countries. Germany, France, and Italy have been mired in low-growth high-unemployment conditions for 15 years. The trouble with the European Union is the ground work was based in the go-go 1980's, but the formation was executed in the lackluster 90's. Throw in the idea West Germany totally overpaid for buying East Germany, and it's no wonder core Europe is fading.

Given China and India are too small to catch us even within a few generations, and Europe can't get out of its own socialist way to exhibit real growth, their is no heir apparent.

Answer 4

If we continue on our present course I dont think it will take 20 years for the USA to be a #2 nation or lower. Actually I have not found a lot of people envying us at all. Most people are curious but not envious. I think in the next 10-15 years you will see the European Union, China India and maybe perhaps Russia at least even up with us. Most important thing that you dont mention is the fact that our currency is being devalued at a shocking rate. We are completely dependent on other countries to keep loaning us money to stay afloat. I do not even think a big war would do it. These small pointless (meaning they do not have any benefit for the country) wars are ruining us. The bleeding out of our wealth into other countries has been going on for some time now. We are doing nothing to stop it. Our whole economy is based on easy credit we do not save money anymore...our economy is a farce that cannot be supported long term. It makes me so sad to see how foolish our once great nation has become. None of our leaders have served us in a long time, none have made any tough choices for the betterment of our country. This is not just a republican or democrat problem it is a problem with all of us and we are all to blame for what is going to happen to us.

Answer 5

It is actually 5 or 10 years from now. The whole world order will have shifted in the next 13 years, and it will probably come to a climax in one last World War. The US will survive, but I am not sure as what. If the war goes over the top, we can expect 15 million dead in the US. The rest will slowly immigrate back to where they came from, and the citizens will be left to clean up the mess. If it stays within the framework of conventional warfare the mortality rate will be significantly less, but we can also expect to lose some of the land we now have. I suspect parts of Texas, all of New Mexico, Arizona, and Southern California will be annexed back into Mexico eventually. We will defiantly hold "them" off at the Mississippi and at the I70 (seems like a natural north/south division of the Western US). Hope you all are locked, ******, and ready to rock, 'cause it is coming.

Bush, or not, this is still the USA, and I do hate to see it happening.

Answer 6

I am not sure who will be on top in 20 to 50 years! There are a couple of really strong contenders for the top economy. India and China come to mind, There are so many variables though it is really hard to say. Cars pretty much fueled the American economy for about 70 years, allowing all sorts of other manufacturing and purchasing. Technology has displaced some of that.

No economy or government remains “on top” forever. Not the Greeks or Romans, nor any other government / economy.

Who knows what the future holds? We may switch to an idea that hasn't been thought of yet.

Answer 7

I do agree with you that our blatant economic and militaristic dominance will recede in the coming years because of China's booming economy and the growing stability within the EU. However, the United States will continue to rule all aspects of the political scene. As many problems as we are having in the United States, the EU is feeling them ten fold. Because of their socialist-based governments, business is stifled and unemployment is exceedingly high. The work ethic in Europe is meager pickings compared to the driving American spirit. To ensure our continued place as the world leader, we must make policies that are friendly to business and encourage ingenuity. Many politicians are currently stressing social welfare programs such as universal healthcare that would only prove to stifle our economy further and make our economy less flexible. The government has a way of misusing large amounts of money and being much less efficient than the free market. We must stray away from socialism and allow the American spirit to continue to flourish in a system with very limited government and business-friendly policies. I would recommend reading John Stossel's books if you would like to find out more about outsourcing. He has a very different perspective on losing jobs to oversees markets than the media frequently portrays. When we are able to use cheaper labor, companies are able to invest and expand their businesses which actually creates more higher skilled jobs in the United States. Although at first outsourcing may seem like a bad thing, in the end it actually increases business and jobs in the US. One more thing, we must, I mean MUST, revamp how unions function and the status-quo of over-regulation. Both practices are stifling business and forcing consumer prices to sky-rocket, which decreases Americans' buying-power. Without unions, business would be able to function much more efficiently and the economy would be more flexible and able to grow.

Answer 8

I really appreciate your details! That is the reason why war is still on going,USA president try to control the country with oil mines and try to control the global economic activities of asian countries by importing products with low cost of labor and production,and japan has been a partner of the USA with their electronic products wherein they control also the prices and its production(EX:sony). After 50 years if the developing countries of asia and europe will still dependent with the USA with its economy,still the USA reign the world but if they gonna use their own independency towards import- export trading,USA might be no longer dominant!

Answer 9

On-chore On top of what being a lazy land of sheep who let the World Corporate Ruling Class control everything of importance! On top being made a mockery or outright fools of by total deception sold out buy Phony representative government that is planted by the WCRC reference above.The ones laying claim to how great everything is are the few haves who benefit Financially and promote a false sense of security claiming we are #1 superpower! Superpower that turns its back on a large portion of its legal lower class citizens for the past 35 years or more ignoring,exploiting and actively recruiting other countries ignorant poor citizens to intentionally subvert,suppress the Legal working class citizens livelihoods. Yeah top hypocrites and plantation owner slave masters! It is tops for those at the top of the income scale, small number. Horrifying for a large number of our society whom have a true sense of their real financial securities or insecurities etc.The right change for us to regain #1 status is to become a more inclusive progressive society not exclusive! The control of Money/Power/Wealth needs to be taken from U.S.Congress and the illegitimate WCRC and returned it to the majority legal citizens reinstating majority rule in general. Not phony representative government!

Answer 10

Yes, sadly, The US is probably not going to be on top for very much longer anymore. Not many other countries like the US and too many jobs are going overseas and helping other economies, and hurting our own. And yes, it wont happen in the near future, but it is coming eventually.