When will the PRC economy equal the US economy?

Question

The numbers I have been looking at are:

USA GDP $11 667 515 000 000 annual growth about %3
PRC GDP $1 649 329 000 000 annual growth rate about %10

Assuming the GDP figures are reasonably accurate and the growth rates stay the same how many years before China catches up with the US GDP?

Answer 1

Basically you have an equation that looks like this:

11.668T * 1.03^X = 1.649T * 1.10^X

Using Natural Logs...ln(11.668T) + Xln(1.03) = ln(1.649T) + Xln(1.10)

Solving for X, you get X is about 30 years.

Answer 2

Unlikely that any country will maintain a 10% growth rate for 30 years. Further, China's government is not structured for long-term growth. It will only be able to get early stage growth unless some major reforms take place.

Answer 3

This sounds like a math problem, and I haven't done the math, but what is the basis for the assumption that growth rates will stay the same?

Answer 4

before 2050 china's economy will be the world's largest. that is, if there's no devastating war before that......