By when do you think we are going to see fall in the home prices by more than 35%? Months or years or never?

Question

Real estate market in the US soecifically SO Cal

Answer 1

Depends on how long it takes sellers - the ones who must sell - to get desperate.

As soon as they drop prices, the deck of cards will fall, until real estate again begins to seem worthwhile. Remember, it's not the people who hold on to their homes who determine price. Price is determined by those who will have to sell. All those people out there with mortgages they can't really afford.

Some areas may never see a decline, if those areas are not greatly impacted by recession.

Coasts have already seen a decline - much higher in real terms that the declines that have been published. Factor in 'real inflation' and it won't take more than 3 years in some of the larger coastal areas.

Answer 2

35% is a dream. You may see 10%-15% in Southern Cal. later this year. Within 2 years the prices will be back up there short of an earthquake.

Answer 3

Trying to predict falling home prices of that size is difficult.

I believe all that is going to happen is that homes will continue creeping higher and higher, and that will knock out many young folks who are in desperate need of adequate housing.

Salaries don't creep up enough to make homes affordable.

Many who bought homes twenty years ago, and thought they were in over their heads, find that today they can mortgage out more to finance other things they need...but also, many of them couldn't afford to buy the houses they live in at today's prices.

That part is scary.

I believe that there are places around still today where good homes can be affordable to many newcomers, the problem is that it will require moving away from friends and relatives and the job prospects may be poor.

No, I don't expect a big market collapse nor a depression.

Just more of the same stuff where those who bought years ago are King, and the young folks are hanging in the lurch.

Answer 4

SoCal is one of the areas where prices are out of control.

As interest rates rise, people will be squeezed out at the margins which will make prices fall. Also, as some of these exotic financing arrangements become untenable, houses will either be sold or repossesed.

Still, 35% seems like an awful lot. I would have to go with never.

Answer 5

My personal opinion is that once the baby boomers are forced to move out of their houses and into assisted living communities or nursing homes there will be a large surplus of housing causing a drop in prices. I think we are already seeing the market slow down and soon those with the captial available to take advantage of the slow down will make a great deal of money.

Answer 6

They only way that would happen across the entire country is if fannie & freddie failed & brought the mortgage market to a complete standstill.

Answer 7

since everyone is freaking out about falling prices in the houses in places like boston right now i assume it will get worse and we will hit that mark, but if it gets better we probably won't ever see them cut that much. as a buyer i can hope, but its bleak

Answer 8

As long as the population keeps increasing and major catastrophe doesn't happen you won't ever see that kind of drop.

Answer 9

the last i heard they predicted the runaway price increases were stalling and were leveling off ... but i seriously doubt that housing will go down

Answer 10

two more years and we'll see drops of 50%+...be prepared to buy with cash though as credit will not be available(or too expensive) due to coming depression.