Based on what the American administration is saying, they're looking to establish a "NEW MIDDLE EAST." Basically that translates into countries that agree and support US interests in the Middle East, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. So in reality this was not started by Hizbollah, they were just waiting for a pretext to go to war. This "plan" can't just be formed in a few days, we're talking about months or years here.
The only countries in the Middle East that do not support US interests are Hizbollah, Syria, and Iran. They've begun with the weakest one, Lebanon and the reason they're pounding it hard is to threaten and warn Syria and Iran that this is what will happen to you if you don't agree to the US demands.
If they're going to pick up a war with another country, it's gonna be Syria first, then Iran. But it has been complicated by Iran's statement that if Syria is attacked, Iran will "support" it. At this time the US doesn't want to get militarily involved with Tehran because of its troops prescence in Iraq, where Iran holds some cards and could give major headaches to the US troops.
In the next month, both Hizbollah and Israel will be looking to see how they could agree to a ceasefire without looking weak or the loser of the conflict. Even though Israel has inflicted heavy casualties, most the losses have been civilian casualties and Lebanese infrastructre, not Hizbollah's military. Hizbollah was able to push back one of the strongest armies in the world, and that is no small feat. As long as Hizbollah can claim strong resistance and exchange the Jewish soldiers for Arab prisoners, they can claim victory. Israel is refusing to agree to a ceasefire because they're looking to create a buffer zone in the Lebanase territory, and only by doing so can claim victory in this battle. Even though they're demanding that Hizbollah disarm, that's a longshot since the Lebanese civilians are now realizing that if it weren't for Hizbollah Lebanon would have been long invaded. Furthermore each party in the conflict wants to make sure that the other doesn't look victorious or their claim to victory can be challenged.
The ball now is in the Israeli court, they're the ones refusing the cease-fire with full US support, and are looking to inflict more civilian casualties and focusing on aerial bombings followed by creating a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. Lebanon is not a desert, and Israel knows that only it can only achieve the buffer zone by sending in troops in the next few weeks. Time will tell how successful they'll be. Syria will not enter the war anytime in the next month, because Israel is focusing solely on Lebanon for now and will need time to rethink its calculations, since they have underestimated the Hizbollah resistance.
Iran will be avoiding entering this war at this time because it knows that even though it may not lose the war, it will face similar destruction and losses. Iran is focused on improving its infrastructure and military capabilities, which is why the US and Israel are concerned because they don't want a competing force with the US in the Middle East. Furthermore, any involvement of Iran in a war could raise the oil price, crippling world economies.
Afganistan is in the back burner in the US stratgy because it has no oil, which explains the small number of US troops there. And since the resitance is weak and limited to that region, its main focus is elsewhere.
A major point that is being ignored is that Egyptian, Saudi, and Jordanian civilians like most of the other Arab civilians in the region do not support their governments views and policies that side with US policies. Will this be a cause for concern in the future? So far public sentiment is marginalized since public reaction has rarely shaped government policies.
2006-07-30 10:49:40
·
answer #1
·
answered by Anonymous
·
1⤊
0⤋
Past experience shows that there is never a conclusion to mid east conflicts. Rather, events are set in motion which will trigger some significant visible changes in the future, such as Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon 6 years ago.
Therefore, in a month's time from now there will be no final conclusion but we can safely assume that:
a. A fragile ceasfire, mediated by third parties, will exist between Israel and Hezbolla. It will be broken from time to time by Hezbolla, an exchange of fire will ensue, and then the area will be quiet again.
b. Israel will keep, at least for the time being, a military presence in South Lebanon.
c. Negotiations through third parties will ensue concerning the exchange of the 2 kidnapped Israeli soldiers for Lebanese and maybe Palestinian prisoners.
d. Hezbolla leader Nasralla will present the situation (the fact that Hezbolla survived) as a significant victory against the Zionist entity and America.
e. The violence in Iraq will continue regardless of what happens in Lebanon.
f. Some personal changes will be carried out in the Baath regime in Syria but the overall function of Syria as supporter of militant groups in Iraq and Lebanon will not diminish.
g. No sanctions will be taken against Iran regarding its nuclear power bid.
h. Personnel changes in the Israeli armed forces will reflect the Israeli government's dissatisfaction with some generals and some intelligence chiefs. A yet unfelt but a growing paradigm shift will carry the Israeli public opinion towards a more militant stance, resulting in a tougher approach to the palestinians and to the Lebanese. The rightist Likud party may join the Israeli government.
2006-07-30 10:26:11
·
answer #2
·
answered by Moty G 1
·
0⤊
0⤋
Hi now that a jihad has been called against Israel i would ,suggest that Israel .stop immediately or this will be a terrible escalation to the conflict ,The Islamic world thinks they are right and I'm sorry to say so do i ,when the land was given to Israel by the UN in 1945 they also gave Israel the best land the best water supply and the two most holy cities in the world booting the people out to Lebanon and elsewhere. Lebanon is a war torn country and Israel has the backing of USA, Unfortunately the Islamic world will back Lebanon because they believe they are right . Its a horrible situation and god help us all if it gets worse.
2006-07-30 23:08:18
·
answer #3
·
answered by Treat 3
·
0⤊
0⤋
The USA will realise the best thing they can do is give the Israelis, the white Christian Jews, US pass-ports and $50,000 a piece to go and settle in America. There are already more Jews in New York state than there are in Israel. This will leave the middle-East to, err, the Arab peoples, who will have no-one to antagonise them into fighting.
We have decades of proof that the current situation, and all preceeding ones, have not worked. The Bush administration is 110% behind Israel, who are going into absolute overkill, and committing war-crimes against innocent civilians who want nothing but peace. And if you think that angry young men, whose families are wiped out in this conflict, won't come around to the Al'Qaida 'Death to the West' philosophy, you are way off-base, for you would, in their shoes.
2006-07-30 09:55:26
·
answer #4
·
answered by Anonymous
·
0⤊
0⤋
Forecast for the middle east: Many deaths, no solutions and more war spreading to other countries involved with the U.N.
2006-07-30 10:53:53
·
answer #5
·
answered by Art The Wise 6
·
0⤊
0⤋
First, I don't think there will be a ceasefire until Israel has accomplished what it set out to do: cripple Hezbollah. Also, I think that in a month (possibly sooner or later) Israel will attack Iran. The missiles raining down on Israel come from Iran, and the fascist leader of Iran has broadcast his intention of "wiping Israel off the face of the Earth". He is also building nuclear weapons. No country would stand by given those circumstances.
2006-07-30 10:15:47
·
answer #6
·
answered by composertype 5
·
0⤊
0⤋
I think religious fanatics who want to bring on the Apocalypse have predicted the end of days in the year 2006 and started in the middle east. This has all been predicted in the book called the bible code also stating atomic holocaust in the middle east, israel and iran have nuclear weapons
2006-07-30 10:11:31
·
answer #7
·
answered by chopps . 3
·
0⤊
0⤋
Frax- its bad news over there, it wont ever get better. Blood will be spilled till your old and gray unless the nukes fly then we all want have to worry any more
2006-07-30 09:57:47
·
answer #8
·
answered by ~Aqua.. 4
·
0⤊
0⤋
It will be raining bullets with occasional thunder storms of bombs
2006-08-02 07:59:06
·
answer #9
·
answered by doodlebug 2
·
0⤊
0⤋
well it is about a 120 degrees and muggy over there.
2006-07-30 09:47:00
·
answer #10
·
answered by go_pali 2
·
0⤊
0⤋