Is planet earth headed for a fate similar to the disaster on Easter Island?

Question

Easter Island is comprised of an area of 64 square miles and is located in a remote area of the Pacific Ocean 2000 miles west of Chile. The climate is subtropical.

ORIGINAL SETTLEMENT - Archeologists surmise that the island was originally settled by Polynesians in around 400 A.D. The Polynesians, when they arrived, found an island made up largely of sub-tropical forest of trees and woody bushes. The Easter Island palm grew to up to 80 feet tall with a 6-foot diameter and could be used to make canoes as well as yielding nuts, and sap for syrups, sugar, and wine. Underneath the trees and bushes was other vegetation such as shrubs, herbs, ferns, and grasses. They found the island was home to many varieties of seabirds and land birds as well. The surrounding oceans were loaded with fish and porpoise-dolphins. The island was a pacific paradise.

THE GOOD YEARS ON EASTER ISLAND - From 400 to 800 A.D. were the good years for the people on Easter Island. Food was plentiful and living went well. They used the large palm trees for canoes and fished offshore for porpoise-dolphins. They raised the chickens, which they had brought with them; but sea birds provided additional fowl for their diet. The natural fruit was plentiful and the sap from the palm trees yielded syrups, sugar and wine. They had sufficient wood for their dwellings and winter fires. These were good years on Easter Island. Their numbers grew, but the environment sustained them and more importantly they sustained the environment.

THE YEARS OF SPLENDOR AND DRAWDOWN - From 800 to 1300 A.D. were the years for the people on Easter Island in which they became numerous and prosperous. The islanders possessed the only written language in Oceania, the Rongorongo Script. They erected the large rock carvings, called petroglyphs or monoliths, or Moai by the islanders. These are the huge crude statues, busts of stone with long faces and long pointed noses, for which Easter Island is most noted. In a very labor-intensive effort, these huge statues were quarried, carved and then transported, by being rolled on logs, to the coastal areas for display.

During this period the population increased substantially and was approaching the highest level to be reached on the island, estimated by archeologists to be seven thousand.

But also during this period the drawdown had begun. Drawdown is when the dominant species in the ecosystem begins to uses resources faster than they can be replaced. The islanders were using up the forests, for their canoes, houses, and the transporting of their statues, much faster than they were being re-grown.

If they had realized what they were doing to their environment and how it would impact their future, and if they would have had the will to make the necessary life style adjustments, they could have prevented what followed.

THE OVERSHOOT-From 1300 to1700 AD - Overshoot is when, environmentally, the point of no return has been reached, where the depletion of resources has reached that level where they cannot be regenerated to sustainable levels.

The islander's population continued to grow and the forests disappeared at increasing rates. With the disappearing forests, springs and steams dried up and those plants and animals for which the forests provided cover, also disappeared. Land birds, snails, and many seabirds disappeared. Even the gardens suffered as deforestation allowed the winds and rains to erode the valuable topsoil.

In the 1400's all the large palms were cut down and the palm became extinct. The consequences were terrible. Without the large palms, the fishing fleets of canoes were depleted. By 1500, porpoise-dolphins were no longer in the Islander's diet and they soon ran completely out of all wood.

Politically chaos set in. In the 1600's tribal warriors displaced the centralized government. Tribal wars and cannibalism became prevalent, as humans were the largest remaining meat source.

THE CRASH - 1700 and 1800 A.D. - The crash is the inevitable meltdown of the population that follows an overshoot.

In the early 1700's, intense tribal warfare and cannibalism drove people into the caves. When the Island was discovered on Easter, April 15, 1773, by Dutch explorer Jacob Roggeveen, he found a small population of poor, impoverished people. When Captain Cook voyaged to Easter Island in 1775 there were only 600 Islanders left.

One hundred years later, 1885, only 155 Islanders remained. In less than 500 years the population of the Islanders went from 7000 to near extinction.

THUS PLANET EARTH - Globally, overall, although specific nations and areas may vary, planet earth is in the withdrawal stage, like Easter Island was between 800 and 1300 A.D. More trees from forests, more fish from fisheries, more fresh water from aquifers, and more area from grasslands are being consumed than are being replenished. All this is complicated by problems of waste disposal, pollution, global warming and related weather complications, and a growing world population, which will go from 6,000,000 to 9,000,000 in the next 50 years.

As there was with the Easter Islanders, within the withdrawal stage, there is a window of opportunity for us recover, to bring about ways of living that will sustain the world's resources. If we do not make that recovery, the other stages as experienced by the Easter Islanders will surely follow, as night follows day.

REFERENCES - Easter Island Internet Home Page. Easter's End by Jared Diamond.

Answer 1

The wise learn from the past. The people in charge and the people with wealth (with some notable exceptions) never do and don't really care.

Answer 2

Thanks for the fascinating question! Unfortunately, I do believe that the seeds of our own destruction have already been sown. aThere is an insufficient community of global interest to reverse the trends until our fate is sealed. The increasing pollution, destruction of global resources, global warming (partially masked by "global dimming") a portion of the population already destroying local resources for their own survival are already proceeding at an alarming rate. In the meantime, national self interests create squabble after squabble. Any corrective action can gain agreement as long as it will not effect sacrifice or economic impact of the principle powers; U.S. being first.
A sorry prediction, but, as you have already pointed out, in microcosm, that has happened, and the only difference right now is that the process is starting on a larger stage.

Answer 3

Jared Diamond has an excellent book on the same subject, but including many more "failed" civilizations and/or societies. Interestingly he also includes successful societies, which makes the argument balanced and optimistic. Or at least not totally pessimistic.
The book is COLLAPSE - How Societies choose to Fail or Survive, ISBN - 13 978-0-140-27951-1. I highly recommend it.

Answer 4

we can make it happen.however it will go only so far